Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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862 FXUS61 KBUF 091444 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1044 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather through early afternoon will giveway widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening when another deep trough moves across the area. Scattered showers and cool temperatures will continue through Monday. A drying and warming trend will then develop through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Late this morning, radar shows most of the showers from last nights shortwave have ended. Visible satellite imagery shows at least a partial clearing across most of Western NY. This will result in breezy (gusts again 25 to 35 mph) and mostly rain free conditions which will last into early afternoon. But the rain- free weather will end quickly this afternoon. Another strong mid level vorticity maxima will then rotate through the longwave trough and cross Lake Ontario and western/central NY during the afternoon. The increase in large scale ascent and moisture along with steep low/mid level lapse rates will bring increasing coverage of showers this afternoon. A well defined near surface convergence zone will setup from the Niagara Frontier east across the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes, marking the boundary between the general WNW flow and the WSW flow forced by a backing of winds by the Lake Erie breeze. This convergence zone will act as the initial low level focus for increasing showers during early to mid afternoon, with the resulting area of showers then moving southeast across the rest of the area. The cool air aloft and steep lapse rates coupled with synoptic scale forcing will support scattered thunderstorms as well, a few of which may produce gusty winds and small hail. Showers will decrease in coverage from northwest to southeast this evening as the vorticity maxima moves southeast of the area. Overnight, additional weaker shortwaves, deepening moisture, and even some lake induced instability will support a few more scattered showers, increasing in coverage towards Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level trough over the Northeast will become elongated down to the central Appalachians Monday through Tuesday. An upper level ridge will nose into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night while a shortwave trough moves across the Mid-Atlantic region. The ridge will flatten out across the forecast area into Wednesday. Cool, northwest flow with 850mb temperatures falling to +3C will result in the coolest day of the recent stretch of unsettled weather on Monday. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s across the lower elevations and upper 50s to near 60 across the higher terrain. A 500mb trough axis and deep layer moisture will move across the forecast area Monday. The cooler airmass may create lake induced instability and scattered to numerous rain showers will track from the Lakes to inland areas, with showers lingering the longest across southeast portions of the forecast area Monday. Showers will come to an end Monday evening. The upper level trough will remain across the region through Tuesday night. Drier air and low level subsidence will be increasing across the region, however mostly cloudy conditions will persist most of the time. Tuesday will begin the warming trend across the region with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain. Finally, the elongated trough will move east of the region Wednesday. This will promote dry and warmer weather with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies late in the work week. A strong, southerly flow will promote warm weather Thursday through Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to track across northern Ontario and Quebec Thursday through Friday with a cold front impacting the region during this time. There is low confidence in the timing of the front, however this should bring a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of high pressure is expected to move into the region this weekend with medium confidence of dry, fair weather. Temperatures will begin above normal mid-week and fall to near normal for the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There will be a brief break in the rain following the exit of the frontal wave. Some lingering MVFR cigs, but mainly VFR late morning into early afternoon. Midday into the afternoon, another mid level trough will move southeast across the area, and combine with modest daytime instability and lake/terrain generated low level convergence boundaries to generate another area of showers and scattered thunderstorms crossing the area from northwest to southeast. Expect areas of MVFR CIGS/VSBY to develop, with local/brief IFR in thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce some small hail. The more organized showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper off this evening, although a few scattered showers may linger overnight. CIGS/VSBY should improve back to VFR initially in the evening, but areas of MVFR CIGS will likely develop overnight in stratus. Outlook... Monday...Areas of MVFR with scattered showers. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Westerly winds will ramp up again today, with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Winds will decrease on Lake Erie this evening, but Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue much of tonight on Lake Ontario. Winds will be somewhat lower Monday, but still expect choppy conditions on both lakes. More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ004. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ005>007. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock