725
FXUS61 KBUF 100813
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with cool temperatures will continue through
today. High pressure will then build in, resulting in a drying
and warming trend through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Regional radar shows scattered showers southeast of Lake Erie and
across the Saint Lawrence Valley this morning. Increasing clouds
will occur across the forecast area today.

A stacked low is over the Gulf of St. Lawrence with it`s trough
spanning the Great Lakes region to Northeast this morning. There are
multiple embedded shortwave troughs moving cyclonically within the
trough with one in particular just north of Lake Ontario. A core of
the cold pool aloft is overhead this morning and 850
temperatures are down to +4C. A west-northwest flow across the
relatively warm lakes has resulted in lake clouds southeast of
Lake Erie and west of Lake Ontario. Deep layer moisture will
increase from the north today and has already moved into the
North Country where scattered rain showers can be found. As the
trough approaches the region from the north today, clouds will
increase with lake enhanced rain showers east-southeast of Lake
Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Fortunately, forcing is not
as strong and moisture is not has deep as previous days. Any
showers will be light. Mostly dry conditions are likely across
the Niagara Frontier to the Genesee Valley today. It will be
the coolest day of the recent stretch of unsettled weather with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The upper level trough will persist across the forecast area
tonight. Surface high pressure from the Mid-Western states will
approach and while it won`t be a cloud free night, drier
weather is expected. Lows will fall to the mid to upper 40s to
low 50s near the lakeshores tonight.

There will be improvement Tuesday with weak warm air advection
occuring through the day. Surface high pressure will continue to
build across the region. It will be a dry day but lingering low
level moisture with the upper level trough overhead will lead
to partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to low 70s, mid 60s across the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The unsettled pattern as of late will come to an end by midweek.
Tuesday night, surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley
and eastern Great Lakes, with dry weather and clearing skies.
Favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow lows to drop
into the 40s in inland areas, with 50s close to the lakes.

Wednesday through Wednesday night, the surface high will drift to
the east coast, allowing for warm advection to ramp up across the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Highs will reach the mid 70s in most
locations Wednesday after a cool start. A southwest breeze and
ongoing warm advection will keep Wednesday night mild, with lows in
the 55-60 degree range in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The longwave pattern will amplify again Thursday through Friday as a
mid level trough digs through eastern Canada and adjacent areas of
the Great Lakes and New England. This trough will be much less
amplified than the previous episode, and much shorter duration.

Thursday, a thermal ridge will advect into the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes ahead of the digging trough, bringing a very
warm and increasingly humid day. Highs will reach well into the 80s
away from lake influences. Thursday should stay mainly dry with
deeper moisture and forcing still well upstream.

Thursday night through Friday the trough will move across the
eastern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front moving through
the region late Thursday night or early Friday. Favorable forcing,
moisture, and instability will bring a chance of a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves across the region.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Friday night and
Saturday, then drift to New England Sunday. Associated dry air and
subsidence will bring a return to dry weather. Temperatures will
briefly cool Saturday behind the cold front, with highs in the lower
70s. Increasing warm advection will then allow highs to reach
into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Sunday.

Looking a little farther ahead, model and ensemble guidance
continues to suggest the western ridge will build east by early next
week. This may bring a period of mid-summer heat and humidity to the
region, with the CPC day 8-14 outlook showing high probabilities of
above average temperatures for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing moisture within northwest flow will result in ceilings
developing and lowering across the eastern Great Lakes region
today. MVFR ceilings will continue to develop across the region
with IFR conditions across the higher terrain including KJHW.
There will be improvement back to MVFR this afternoon. Scattered
rain showers are possible across the western Southern Tier and
east of Lake Ontario today.

Ceilings will diminish across western NY this evening with
improving conditions to VFR. Low-end VFR ceilings will persist
from KROC east including KART tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerly winds will continue on Lake Ontario through
this morning, with winds and waves diminishing this afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario are now in effect
through this morning. Small Craft Advisories will drop off from
Niagara River to Hamlin Beach this afternoon. Weaker westerly
winds will continue on Lake Erie today.

More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle
of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ002-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK