Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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995 FXUS61 KBUF 092343 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 743 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and cool temperatures will continue tonight through Monday. High pressure will then build in, resulting in a drying and warming trend through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Regional radars display a weakening trend to convection this evening with the loss of daytime instability. These showers will also decrease in coverage area from northwest to southeast across interior WNY this evening as the mid level shortwave exits the region. Overnight, additional weaker shortwaves, deepening moisture, and even some lake induced instability will support a few more scattered showers, increasing in coverage towards Monday morning. A cool northwest flow with 850mb temperatures falling to +3C on Monday will result in the coolest day of the recent stretch of unsettled weather. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Cyclonic flow aloft will result in lots of cloud cover and possibly a few showers although coverage will be limited. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As we move into Monday night any diurnally-driven shower activity will fade out during the early evening with the loss of heating. This same loss of diurnal influences and a continued sufficiently cool (925 T`s lowering to around +6C) and moist cyclonic NW flow may then support the development of some rare June lake effect/enhanced showers southeast of Lake Ontario during the late evening and overnight hours...though with some shear and a cap of only 3-5 kft in place...any such activity will remain rather spotty and weak. Otherwise a fair amount of lower clouds will linger...with the cool airmass also supporting below average lows ranging from the lower- mid 40s in our normal interior cool spots to around 50 near the lakeshores. On Tuesday surface-based ridging and drier air will build across our region. Coupled with renewed diurnal influences...this will help to bring about a quick demise to any spotty weak lake response southeast of Lake Ontario during the morning. The incoming drier airmass and daytime heating will also result in the lingering lower clouds evolving into a SCT-BKN diurnal cumulus field...with the coverage of the latter greatest inland from the lakeshores. Otherwise it will be dry...with some gradual airmass modification allowing highs to climb back into the mid to upper 60s...still below normal for this time of year...but also not as cool as those of the previous day. The surface high will then crest directly across our region Tuesday night...with its axis then only slowly drifting to a position just to our southeast during Wednesday. This will result in fair dry weather for this 24-hour period...along with partly cloudy to mainly clear skies Tuesday night...and mostly sunny skies Wednesday. With respect to temperatures...the overhead position of the surface ridge will support good radiational cooling Tuesday night...allowing lows to range from the mid 40s across the interior Southern Tier/North Country to the lower 50s across the lake plains of western New York. Warm advection/continued airmass modification will then allow highs to finally climb back to normal or slightly above normal levels on Wednesday...when most areas should see readings peak in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday night the surface ridge will slide further east and off the mid-Atlantic coastline...while a weak to modest shortwave trough approaches our region from the northwest. Cannot rule out this latter feature producing an isolated shower or two as it approaches later Wednesday night...however conditions should remain largely dry. With a deepening southwesterly flow of warmer air in place between these two systems...lows Wednesday night will be much warmer than those of the preceding three nights...with mins ranging from the mid 50s across the interior to the lower 60s across the lake plains of western New York. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies late in the work week. A strong, southerly flow will promote warm weather Thursday through Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to track across northern Ontario and Quebec Thursday through Friday with a cold front impacting the region during this time. There is low confidence in the timing of the front, however this should bring a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of high pressure is expected to move into the region this weekend with medium confidence of dry, fair weather. Temperatures will be near to around five degrees above normal for Thursday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the 00Z TAFS daytime convection continues to weaken and become less widespread across interior NYS, with TAF sites returning to VFR. This VFR flight conditions will hold through the first half of tonight, but cool air advection aloft, and moist cyclonic flow a deck of stratus clouds will expand across all airfields, likely in the MVFR range, though some dips to IFR are possible towards daybreak. Scattered showers...in part aided by cool flow over the now warmer lakes will become a little more numerous through the day tomorrow. Will have VCSH in the KJHW and KART airfields tonight and tomorrow, with a lower chance for showers at KBUF/KIAG and KROC with a westerly flow. These scattered showers will diminish in coverage the final hours of this TAF cycle, though a MVFR stratus deck will linger through the TAF period. Outlook... Monday night...Returning to VFR. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds will decrease on Lake Erie through the late evening hours...though a longer period of moderate westerly winds on Lake Ontario will continue small craft advisories through tomorrow morning. Winds will be somewhat lower Monday, but still expect choppy conditions on both lakes. More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ004. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ005>007. Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas