


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
660 FXUS65 KBYZ 151928 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 128 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool, wet, and breezy conditions will continue through Wednesday. Widespread precipitation totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inch are expected by Wednesday evening. - Seasonal temperatures return Thursday and Friday becoming above normal for the weekend. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day. - Early next week is trending cooler and unsettled with another storm system working into the region. && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday night... Unseasonably cool and wet conditions will be over the area today through Wednesday evening as a trof of Canadian origin slowly moves southeast across the area. Current readings are in the 50s across much of the forecast area with a few 60s along the southern and eastern state line. The warmest location in the forecast area, and the only 70+ degree reading, is currently Cooke City at 74 degrees. For this afternoon expect stronger jet energy to work in from the southwest and over-run the cold surface airmass. This extra energy will increase precipitation intensity and coverage across the area through tonight and into tomorrow. A few high based thunderstorms are possible as this jet energy works into the area. The strongest potential for thunderstorms will be along the southern tier of the forecast area with a a slight risk posted by SPC for a severe thunderstorm clipping Sheridan county. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will all be a threat with any stronger storms today into this evening. Given we have 3 recent burn scars in the southern tier of the forecast area will have to keep an eye on any heavy rainfall falling over burn scars for the potential of flash flooding, particularly over the Elk and Remington/McGhee burn scars. The heaviest widespread precipitation will fall tonight through Wednesday morning, tapering off Wednesday afternoon from west to east as the upper trof shifts east into the Dakotas. Still looking at the potential for record cold high temperatures Wednesday afternoon, with highs expected to be in the mid 60s. With clearing Wednesday night and the recent moisture, as well as southeasterly low level winds persisting into Thursday, expect there to be fairly widespread fog development for Thursday morning. This fog may prevent temperatures from dropping into the 40s for many areas outside of the foothills. So despite this cold core system, we may avoid any record lows in our area. For reference Livingston and Sheridan have record lows of 37 and 38 degrees respectively on Thursday, and Billings is 45. Still not seeing enough snow in the latest forecast to cause any significant travel issues for the Beartooth Pass tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels still hover around 11kft and snow accumulation calculations are under 2 inches even above that elevation. That said snow can fall to temperatures around 37 degrees so there may be some flakes noticeable down to 9500 feet or so, and anyone heading up the pass should be alert for slick spots. Those with recreation plans in the high country should be prepared for cold wet conditions for the next 48 hours or so. Chambers Thursday through Tuesday... Zonal downslope oriented flow aloft will bring drier and warmer temperatures to the area Thursday. Highs look to be near seasonal levels in the lower to mid 80s. Yet another upper low from western Canada drops southward toward Montana, but shunts eastward along the US/CA border. There is enough energy with this system to push a surface cold front through the area shifting winds to the north Thursday night into Friday morning. This surface front should be enough to wring out some low precipitation chances, and maybe a few thunderstorms, Thursday night into early Friday. Residual moisture from Tue/Wed rainfall along with continued north to east near surface winds keeping plains moisture in the area will keep a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday. NBM still seems a bit low on the probabilities (15-30%) given the aforementioned moisture and focus from the front and upslope winds. Look for precipitation probabilities to increase some for Friday if the forecast stays consistent with these variables going forward. Current temperature forecast for Friday has highs very similar if not a touch cooler than Thursday. Weak ridging builds in for the weekend. The strength of the ridging feature has been decreasing over the past few model runs, so the temperatures have trended downward a bit. Still looking for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday. Will keep a chance for late day showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as there are ripples in the upper flow and not seeing a strong downslope wind push to move recent surface moisture out of the area. The early to middle of next week looks interesting. About 75% of the long range ensemble members are looking to dig a tof over the PacNW and stretch it into Montana through Wednesday, while the rest have either continued zonal flow like the weekend or a broader ridge over the area. The trofing scenario which is currently favored could be a good precipitation producer as well as keeping temperatures cooler, and on the front side Monday the southwest flow could be a severe thunderstorm producing setup. Still a long ways out but something to keep an eye on. Overall the week ahead is an unusual pattern for the later half of July which is usually fairly hot and dry. Chambers && .AVIATION... Widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east through the area this afternoon and evening, continuing into Wednesday. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe over the southern mountains and foothills, including near KSHR this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 50 kts and large hail are the main threats. Mountain obscurations can be expected through the period. Patchy to areas of fog will impact all sites tonight, contributing to reductions in flight conditions. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions at all sites through the period, periods of LIFR are possible with heavier storms and fog. PM/STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/065 051/085 060/083 060/091 062/091 061/089 060/083 +5/R 01/U 31/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 22/T LVM 045/065 045/088 049/087 051/091 052/089 051/087 051/083 82/R 01/U 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 22/T HDN 053/065 048/086 058/085 059/092 060/092 059/089 058/085 +5/R 10/U 31/U 21/U 11/U 11/U 21/U MLS 052/064 049/083 057/085 060/090 063/091 062/089 060/085 95/R 11/U 40/U 11/U 21/U 21/U 22/R 4BQ 053/060 051/081 059/084 061/087 063/090 063/088 061/086 +7/R 10/U 30/U 21/U 21/U 11/U 21/U BHK 048/061 044/073 052/082 054/085 058/088 058/086 056/083 96/R 10/B 41/U 12/T 32/T 21/U 22/T SHR 049/063 045/085 054/085 054/089 055/091 056/088 054/087 +7/T 10/U 21/U 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings