Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
022 FXUS65 KBYZ 062350 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 550 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .UPDATE... Some weak energy moving through as flow becomes more zonal will bring a slight (10-15%) chance of light showers over the mountains and higher foothills this evening through overnight. Accumulations are expected to remain low, with a 90% chance of less than 0.1 inch at this time. Archer && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday night... Today and tomorrow we will be in zonal downsloped flow leading to clear skies and dry conditions. Locations in the east near the Dakotas will see gusty winds in the 20s and 30s today as steep low level lapse rates mix down breezy winds aloft. Tomorrow will see breezy conditions spread across the forecast area as a weak low switches winds from southerly in the morning to northerly in the afternoon. This will create 25-35kt winds aloft to be mixed down across the region rather than just near the Dakotas border. Most locations have a 40-80% chance of getting a wind gust over 30mph with some locations on the outer edge of the CWA having a 30-50% chance of getting a gust over 40mph. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. This will bring about the potential for increased snowmelt runoff. Most of the river and stream levels in the region are well below flood stage and will be able to handle increased water flows. There are a few sites that are currently forecast to be near flood stage but not exceed. We will be monitoring these sites going forward and people along rivers and streams that drain the Beartooth/Bighorn mountains should prepare for possible increased flows over the next few days. Widespread flooding is not expected. Torgerson Saturday through Thursday... Dry northwesterly flow aloft will be over the Northern Rockies Saturday with dry conditions over much of the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) are expected in the Beartooth/Absaroka and Bighorn Mountains. Any shower/storm activity should diminish overnight Saturday night. On Sunday, our area will be under the periphery of an upper ridge. In the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms (30% chance) will develop over the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains and isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Bighorn Mountains (20% chance). Sunday night, an upper air disturbance will approach from the west and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the area (20-50% chance). Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-70% chance, greatest in the mountains) are expected Monday as the upper air disturbance will still be slowly moving eastward over Montana. Precipitable water values should increase to ~0.75-0.90 inches Sunday night-Monday so thunderstorms could drop some appreciable rainfall. Currently, instability looking a bit too low for severe thunderstorms but will monitor in case this changes. Tuesday through Thursday, models generally agree on warm conditions but differ on details with potential precipitation. Some solutions show ridging dominating the weather with drier conditions but others show a west/southwesterly jet over the area that could facilitate more shower/storm activity. In accord with these flow pattern solutions, the NBM shows a 20% chance of showers/storms in and near the mountains Tuesday afternoon-evening and a 20-30% chance of showers/storms during the afternoon- evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Models are then hinting at an upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest toward the end of next week which could produce a pattern more favorable for showers and thunderstorms in our area. NBM does highlight some uncertainty in the high temperature forecast with the 10th-90th percentile range in high temperatures at Billings being 71F to 84F on Saturday, 62F to 88F on Sunday, and mainly 70sF to 90sF Monday-Thursday. The expected high temperatures are in the 70s Saturday and Sunday then 70s and 80s Monday, and 80s Tuesday-Thursday. The warmer weather will cause increased snowmelt in the mountains and associated rises on area waterways into next week. Those with interests along waterways should prepare and stay aware for rising waters. Flooding is not expected at this time but will monitor. Get latest stream/river observations and forecasts at water.weather.gov. RMS && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the period. Gusty northwest winds over southeast MT will decrease into the evening hours. A weak disturbance crossing the region will bring a few isolated showers to the southern mountains overnight, along with mid and high clouds. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054/078 052/078 052/076 055/080 055/084 057/086 057/086 00/U 00/U 00/U 23/T 11/U 11/U 11/U LVM 052/081 047/080 048/074 050/077 050/082 050/084 051/083 00/U 00/U 02/T 45/T 21/U 12/T 12/T HDN 053/078 050/079 052/079 054/080 053/085 055/087 055/087 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/T 21/U 11/U 11/U MLS 051/078 050/075 050/075 054/079 053/083 056/088 057/088 00/U 00/U 00/B 22/T 10/U 10/U 10/U 4BQ 055/081 052/077 052/076 054/080 053/084 057/087 056/089 00/U 10/U 10/B 22/T 21/U 11/U 10/U BHK 048/079 045/073 047/072 051/077 050/080 052/086 054/086 00/N 00/U 01/B 23/T 11/U 11/U 11/U SHR 054/078 046/078 049/078 052/077 050/081 053/085 055/087 11/N 10/U 11/B 23/T 21/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings