Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 302108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
308 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the high plains with weak
energy emerging from the northern great basin and a stronger
shortwave well to our north in northwest MT into Alberta. Shear is
weaker than the past few days but diurnal destabilization and weak
forcing is allowing convection mainly over our mtns to this point,
though at 21z there was some activity developing on a boundary in
southern Yellowstone County close to Billings. Expect an overall
increase in activity over the next few hours across our west and
central parts. Eastern areas are drier/stable now but will see
chances increase later tonight into Friday as shortwave moves
across the area. Convection should remain non-severe in our cwa
but could see a few stronger storms with small hail and enhanced
downdraft winds.

One note of interest: Billings needs 0.02" of rain this evening to
avoid its driest June on record.

On Friday, greatest chance of storms will be in our east along
plume of higher theta-e air as southeasterly flow continues in
this area. Pwats to an inch support locally heavy rain but weak
forcing and shear should keep storms below severe levels once
again. To our west, upper ridging will limit amount of convection
but a few weak storms are possible with diurnal heating. This
activity will diminish Friday night.

Temps Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.


.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Saturday, upper level energy slides in over western Montana
increasing rain chances Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Saturday
appears to be the warmest of the days this weekend with highs
solidly in the mid 90s across the Plains. In the wake of this
disturbance passing, southwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Best
rain chances will be confined to higher terrain through mid week
until the next system arrives. If the current model trends
continue Wed/Thur will be a better period to see more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Walsh



VFR conditions expected through the night at all sites aside from
a brief thunderstorm impact this afternoon/evening. VCTS ongoing
near SHR with TSRA impacts likely over the next few hours. VCTS
near BIL and LVM through the rest of the afternoon. Best chance
for TSRA at BIL between 23Z-03Z. Walsh



    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
BIL 060/091 062/095 062/093 061/090 060/089 059/087 057/088
    32/T    22/T    32/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 050/090 052/093 053/088 051/087 049/085 048/084 047/084
    42/T    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/091 059/095 060/093 059/092 057/091 056/088 056/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 062/089 063/094 064/093 062/092 062/090 060/088 059/088
    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 061/087 060/094 063/095 062/093 062/093 060/091 058/090
    24/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    11/B    11/B    22/T
BHK 056/082 057/089 060/091 060/091 059/089 058/086 056/086
    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    33/T
SHR 056/088 054/092 056/092 055/090 055/091 054/089 054/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    22/T




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