Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292033
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
233 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

STABLE AIR MASS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW MOUNTAINS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH THAT SETTLED IN OVERNIGHT. IF WE
MANAGE TO GET ANY SUN ON THOSE MOUNTAINS WE MAY SEE SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

FOR TOMORROW...SHORT WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRACKS ACROSS
MONTANA SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
IS OKAY THOUGH NOT GREAT...AND THERE IS MORE EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAN
WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. IF WE DONT CLOUD UP TOO MUCH...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY.

SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER. PROGGS DO NOT SHOW ANY OBVIOUS SHORT
WAVE...BUT WITH THE GROUND MOISTURE WE HAVE SEEN AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
TRY TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. MAYBE NOT AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD
AS SATURDAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...COVERING THE
APPROACHING WORK WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERN FLOW ALOFT.

A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD...WITH
MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY RIDING UP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL INITIATE THE RETURN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS FAVOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
ARE ALSO SOME INDICATORS FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH INCREASED CAPES
AND SHEAR ON MONDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS
DEVELOP GOING FORWARD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
EASTWARD. AS EXPECTED THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITH TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW AS WE PROCEED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GENERAL
COOLING TREND AS WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE IN FORM OF
CLOSED LOW OR BROAD OPEN WAVE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND
UNDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CIGS STILL HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
ARE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL BECOME VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT
AND CLEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR AREAS WEST AND
SOUTH OF KBIL...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OBSCURED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY
BEGIN TO CLEAR BY SUNSET. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/075 052/081 056/083 054/077 051/072 051/072 052/071
    04/T    33/T    23/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 046/072 051/078 052/077 049/072 046/067 044/070 045/066
    24/T    43/T    35/T    45/T    44/T    33/T    44/T
HDN 046/079 051/084 054/086 054/079 052/074 050/076 052/074
    03/T    33/T    25/T    44/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 044/076 052/081 057/085 058/078 055/073 052/074 053/074
    01/B    52/T    24/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    44/T
4BQ 043/075 052/080 056/085 057/078 055/073 052/074 054/073
    01/B    32/T    22/T    33/T    44/T    33/T    34/T
BHK 039/067 045/076 052/083 054/076 052/073 049/073 050/072
    01/N    51/B    22/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    34/T
SHR 042/075 049/078 052/081 052/075 048/070 047/072 049/070
    11/B    33/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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