Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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078
FXUS65 KBYZ 040259
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
859 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  NO CHANGES TONIGHT.  RMS/BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE QUIET. THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER DID TREND THE HIGH FOR THURSDAY DOWN
SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WAS GOING
6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH IN BILLINGS...BLENDED MORE
WITH THE CONSALL GUIDANCES TO LIMIT THE IMPACT THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK MAY HAVE HAD ON THE BIASES. ALSO...THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WORK IN DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE LONG TERM WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN UPPER LOW BRING COOLER
AND SOMEWHAT WETTER CONDITIONS.

LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY MORNING. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE RETURN AND LIMITED SUPPORT ALOFT WILL YIELD POOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A MODERATE RAIN
SHOWER IN UPSLOPE REGIONS AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE MORNING.

AS THE LAST OF THE RIDGE ERODES AWAY LATE FRIDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
AND UPSLOPE-FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS TURN EAST AND
NORTHEASTERLY. BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW AND RAIN THE PLAINS.
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL GIVEN
THE NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS CONFIRM THIS UNCERTAINTY SO FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE. THIS IS SOME CONCERN WITH SMALL RIVER RISES THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RAIN FOLLOWS VERY WARM CONDITIONS. SNOWMELT FROM THE WEEK
WILL BE MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER FLOWS ARE FORECAST TO JUMP 5
TO 10 TIMES HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK. AS OF THIS UPDATE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RIVERS TO ENTER FLOOD STAGE...BUT IF QPF AMOUNTS
INCREASE CONCERN COULD RISE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RESIDUAL
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS MODELS DONT HANDLE ITS MOVEMENT
BACK INTO THE PREDOMINANT FLOW WELL. THIS IS EVIDENT BY THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS. EC IS MUCH WETTER
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BY WRAPPING THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS RETURNS US TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. LEFT INHERITED POPS INTACT WHICH MEANT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/083 052/087 055/067 050/063 044/070 047/065 042/061
    00/U    00/U    13/W    55/T    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 042/079 045/083 046/061 043/059 039/068 042/064 037/060
    00/U    01/B    25/W    55/T    32/W    33/W    33/W
HDN 042/083 046/088 049/069 041/065 040/070 040/065 039/062
    00/U    00/U    13/W    44/T    22/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 048/083 050/089 054/076 048/068 045/071 045/068 042/063
    00/U    00/U    12/W    33/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 044/081 046/088 051/078 045/064 042/068 042/066 040/062
    00/U    00/U    12/W    54/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 044/080 046/087 051/077 043/066 040/067 040/067 038/060
    00/U    00/U    12/W    33/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
SHR 039/077 042/083 046/067 042/059 039/064 038/062 037/057
    00/U    00/U    14/W    76/T    53/W    22/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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