Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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546
FNUS73 KDLH 012258
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM
National Weather Service Duluth MN
558 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on June 01.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Search site and General Ely Forecast -

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with westerly winds this
evening becoming light and variable through the night. Winds
become southerly from 5-10 mph Sunday morning, gusting to 15-20
mph during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop (60% chance) during the afternoon, mainly
around and after 4 PM. Storms could contain heavy rain,
thunder/lightning, large hail up to 1" in diameter, and gusty
winds. There may be a slight break in storm activity roughly from
9 PM to 11 PM before another round of showers and storms moves in.
With the second round, the main threat will be damaging winds to
60 mph, but also heavy rain and thunder/lightning. While flooding
isn`t likely, there is a slight chance (~20-30%) for some minor
flooding or ponding of water around roadways, and streamflow in
rivers may become slightly elevated after storms pass going into
Monday.

Ely Visibility and Ceilings -

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours generally. Once
scattered showers and storms develop Sunday afternoon, occasional
MVFR to IFR visibilities may be possible at times in heavy rain.
Ceilings are likely to lower towards MVFR and possibly IFR Sunday
night as another round of showers and storms pass through.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...3 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 6 to 9 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph early in the evening becoming light.
Ceiling (kft).......24.
Visibility (sm).....10.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............72  69  68  63  59  56  55  51  50  48  47  47
RH..............29  31  34  41  47  53  55  63  68  71  74  74
Surface wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Surface wnd spd.9   7   6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Surface wnd gst.20  16  13  12  8   7   7   7   6   6   6   6
Ceiling (kft)...24  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...8 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming south 6 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Ceiling (kft).......25 decreasing to 22 early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 19 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 16 late in the afternoon
                    increasing to 19.
Visibility (sm).....10.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   CH
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RW
Tstm cov........                                   CH
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     60
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      10     40
Temp............47     60     70     75     77     77
RH..............74     55     35     28     29     35
Surface wind....S 2    S 2    S 4    S 7    S 9    S 10
Surface wnd gst.5      6      9      14     17     18
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     22     16
Visibility (sm).10     10     10     10     10     10

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    and chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Chance of thunder...29 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph.
Ceiling (kft).......22 increasing to 24 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 22 early in the evening
                    decreasing to 19 late in the evening decreasing
                    to 16 decreasing to 13 late in the evening
                    decreasing to 11 decreasing to 8.4 overnight
                    decreasing to 6.2 decreasing to 4.1 after 3 am
                    decreasing to 2.1.
Visibility (sm).....9.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHC       S CHC     CHC       LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHC                           CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40        20        60        80
Chc of thdr (%).30        10        50        50
Temp............76        64        59        57
RH..............37        50        67        83
Surface wind....S 10G17   SE 9G16   SE 8G16   SE 10G17
Ceiling (kft)...22        19        11        4.1
Visibility (sm).10        10        9         9

$$
Forecaster...Josh
Requested by...Alex Rice
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2414880.11/DLH
.DELDT 06/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 7101@slcrs.org,Emergency@slcrs.org,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us,7296@slcrs.org,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,7337@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov,7310@slcrs.org,7111@slcrs.org