Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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689
FNUS73 KDLH 281215
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for NW Sands Block J...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
715 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 28.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry until about 8 AM this morning before some light rain showers
move back in through late morning. Look for a quick 0.05-0.10
inches out of these showers. Additional scattered airmass showers
and 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms are possible between 2
to 8 PM today. Could pick up a quick quarter inch if a
thunderstorm moves directly over the burn site, otherwise
generally expect less than 0.1-0.2 inches. High temperature will
be in the low 60s today with min RH in the afternoon of 50-55%
due to showers and cloudier skies. Light northwest winds turn
northerly today, with sustained winds of 6-9 mph and afternoon
gusts to 12 to 15 mph. Mixing heights rise to 4000-5000 ft from
midday through the afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday will be rain free with sunny skies as high
pressure moves into the region, though rain chances do return
Thursday night into Friday. Wednesday will see light winds out of
the northeast at 5-7 mph Mixing heights rise above 4000 ft during
the afternoon. Min RH on Wednesday will dip into the 35 to 40%
range during the afternoon. Smoke dispersal gets to fair to good
during Wednesday afternoon. RH won`t be quite as low on Thursday,
dropping to around 40%. Winds turn southerly on Thursday with
gusts from late morning through Thursday night around 15 mph and
mixing heights getting to 4000-4500 ft during the afternoon. Smoke
dispersal will be good to excellent on Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers through the day. Isolated thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4600-19500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (42900-67700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....SCT SCT ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    ISO ISO ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   1   1
Temp............52  55  57  59  59  60  60  60  60  61
RH..............80  72  67  60  57  55  55  53  53  53
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.7   8   9   11  12  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 4.9 5.2 4.2 4.8 4.4 3.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   10  9   12  14  15  14  15  15  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10005   13  20  41  59  68  51  62  58  43

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers early in the evening, then isolated
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL decreasing to 1000 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (1400-17000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....SCTTRD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     10     0      0      0
LAL.............1      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............58     55     47     46     43     42
RH..............59     66     86     86     93     96
20 ft wind......N 6    N 4    NE 3   NE 2   NE 2   N 2
20 ft wind gust.12     9      7      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   1000   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..N 15   N 10   NE 8   NE 8   NE 7   NE 6
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100039     9      2      2      2      1

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 4700 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1600-20500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair to good (20500-32400 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     47     54     59     62     63
RH..............96     83     61     47     38     35
20 ft wind......NE 2   NE 3   NE 4   NE 5   NE 7   E 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5      7      9      12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....300    900    2900   4600   4600   3800
Transport wind..NE 6   NE 7   NE 8   NE 7   NE 8   E 8
Haines index....3      3      3      3      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10002      5      21     28     32     26

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Ryan Mulhern
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415190.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL andrew.l.nelson@usda.gov,ryan.mulhern@usda.gov