Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
995 FNUS73 KDLH 040835 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM National Weather Service Duluth MN 335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on June 04. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... Search site and General Ely Forecast - Rampant warm air advection today with highs climbing into the upper 70s by the afternoon. Winds will be out of the southeast to start the day strengthening to out of the south in the afternoon with gusts in the lower 20s. The main focus for today will be the line of storms associated with a cold front pushing west to east this afternoon and evening. The severe risk has increased with the latest model runs and the area is now in a slight risk for severe (2 out of 5). Primary hazards will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1" in diameter. There is a 30-40% chance for some storms to develop ahead of the boundary between 2PM-4PM. But the main line of storms is expected to move across the area after 5PM. The line of storms will be fairly progressive exiting the area before midnight with showers tapering off after 3AM. Ely Visibility and Ceilings - LIFR stratus has built in over night and will take a few hours this morning to burn off. Guidance suggests a return to VFR conditions around 10-11AM. Gusty winds out of the southeast will be present through the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon with a line of storms enter from the west in the evening. Expect reductions in visibilities with these storms and ceilings dropping to MVFR/IFR. To obtain an official pre-flight weather briefing call 1-800-992-7433 .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. Chance of thunder...40 percent. Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........62 percent. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming south 6 to 13 mph with gusts to around 24 mph. Ceiling (kft).......12 decreasing to 1.1 early in the morning, then increasing to 2.2 early in the morning increasing to 7.8 late in the morning decreasing to 3.7 increasing to 19 late in the morning decreasing to 16 decreasing to 11 early in the afternoon decreasing to 9.5 decreasing to 8.0 late in the afternoon. Visibility (sm).....8 increasing to 9 in the late morning and afternoon. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC MC Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 30 50 Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 40 40 Temp............58 61 64 67 70 72 74 75 77 77 77 75 RH..............100 93 87 78 73 71 66 66 62 62 64 69 Surface wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S Surface wnd spd.3 4 6 7 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 Surface wnd gst.9 12 13 15 17 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 Ceiling (kft)...12 1.1 2.2 7.8 3.7 20 19 16 11 9.6 9.5 8.0 Visibility (sm).8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely overnight. Patchy fog early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......90 percent. Chance of thunder...47 percent. Min temperature.....Around 53. Max humidity........96 percent. Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 23 mph in the evening becoming light. Ceiling (kft).......5.7 decreasing to 3.2 early in the evening, then decreasing to 1.9 early in the evening decreasing to 1.3 in the late evening and overnight increasing to 4.2 increasing to 6.7 after 3 am increasing to 9.2 increasing to 11 early in the morning. Visibility (sm).....6 decreasing to 4 early in the evening, then increasing to 6 late in the evening increasing to 8 overnight increasing to 10. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).60 90 90 70 50 30 Chc of thdr (%).40 50 20 20 30 10 Temp............72 66 61 59 56 54 RH..............76 87 93 93 96 96 Surface wind....S 11 S 8 SW 6 W 4 W 4 SW 4 Surface wnd gst.23 18 13 13 13 10 Ceiling (kft)...5.7 1.9 1.3 1.6 4.2 9.2 Visibility (sm).7 4 5 6 8 10 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers early in the afternoon. Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. Chance of thunder...29 percent. Max temperature.....Around 72. Min humidity........44 percent. Surface winds (mph).West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph in the afternoon. Ceiling (kft).......11 in the morning. Visibility (sm).....10 in the morning. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky cover.......PCLDY MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 30 70 Chc of thdr (%).10 0 10 30 Temp............53 61 71 69 RH..............96 78 49 55 Surface wind....SW 4G10 SW 7G14 SW 10G20 W 11G22 Ceiling (kft)...11 11 Visibility (sm).10 10 $$ Forecaster...Lee Requested by...Alex Rice Type of request...SAR .TAG 2414880.13/DLH .DELDT 06/04/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Emergency@slcrs.org,7111@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov,7310@slcrs.org,7101@slcrs.org,7337@slcrs.org,7296@slcrs.org,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us