Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
666 FNUS73 KDLH 042108 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for 2024 MN Wildfire Academy...MNICS IMT3 National Weather Service Duluth MN 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on June 04. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... * NOTE... I adjusted the forecast start time to 6 PM tonight in order to include the Wednesday night forecast. -klh * A cold front will move eastward across the site this evening. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast. Storms will bring the potential for locally heavy rain and possible minor flooding. Gusty and erratic winds of 40 to 60 mph and hail from pea to quarter size are also possible from the storms. The strongest storms should push east of the fire by 7 PM with light to moderate rain and occasional lightning persisting until around 1 AM. Rainfall amounts of one-half inch to 2 inches are possible. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph ahead of the front and will turn westerly at 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph behind the front. Westerly winds persist Wednesday. Colder air aloft will keep a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the afternoon and evening hours. Additional rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch is forecast. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers with thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......90 percent. LAL.................5 until 2100, then 3 until 2200, then 2 until 2300, then 3 until 2400, then 2 until 0200, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 52. Max humidity........93 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (11000-29900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (3700 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.12 inches. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky cover.......MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH CHC SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).90 90 80 70 50 40 30 20 10 10 10 10 LAL.............5 5 5 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 Temp............72 66 64 62 60 59 58 58 55 55 54 53 RH..............73 84 84 84 84 83 86 83 90 86 90 93 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..11 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT wind gust.20 18 15 14 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W SW Transp wind spd.20 18 12 12 10 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/100030 19 11 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2 until 1200, then 3 until 1600, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........49 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to 3000 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph increasing to 21 to 28 mph late in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4500-23200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (67400-107100 knot-ft) late in the morning, then increasing to excellent (85200-123100 knot-ft) late in the afternoon decreasing to excellent (71700 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 30 40 60 LAL.............1 1 1 3 3 2 Temp............54 58 67 68 70 68 RH..............90 83 59 57 51 52 20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 6 SW 9 W 11 W 12 W 12 20 ft wind gust.12 14 16 20 22 22 Mix hgt (ft)....500 800 1800 5100 5600 3900 Transport wind..W 10 W 12 W 15 W 24 W 25 W 26 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/10005 8 23 107 123 90 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of rain showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 50. Max humidity........82 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to around 21 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (35700-41300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to good (12400-32000 knot-ft) early in the evening, then increasing to good (39800 knot-ft) early in the morning. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLDY Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE Tstm cov........S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 10 10 LAL.............2 1 1 1 Temp............65 60 56 54 RH..............58 69 77 77 20 FT wind......W 11G21 W 8G18 W 9G18 W 10G19 Mix hgt (ft)....2000 900 1200 1600 Transport wind..NW 24 W 15 NW 18 W 22 Haines index....5 4 4 3 SDspl kt-ft/100041 12 20 31 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 58. Min humidity........57 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to around 28 mph. Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 31 mph increasing to 25 to 33 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (46500-65100 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (77900-101100 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............52 53 55 57 RH..............80 74 68 59 20 FT wind......W 11G21 NW 15G26 NW 17G28 NW 17G28 Mix hgt (ft)....2400 3400 3500 3900 Transport wind..NW 23 W 26 NW 33 NW 29 Haines index....3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100047 78 100 96 $$ Forecaster...Kevin Requested by...Jolene P Soltis Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2415608.0/DLH .DELDT 06/04/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Christopher.bergquist@state.mn.us,jolene.soltis@state.mn.us