332
FXUS63 KEAX 111941
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
241 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early season dangerous heat and humidity is expected on
  Thursday with heat indices in the 100 to 107 degree range. A
  heat advisory will most likely be needed for most if not all
  of the area.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday evening into
  Thursday night, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts
  the primary hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

This afternoon, a upper level shortwave is moving through Upper
Midwest forcing a cold front towards northwest MO. This cold front
will wash out on our doorstep. Modest WAA out ahead of this front
has allowed highs to rise into the ow to mid 80s. Tomorrow, WAA will
increase. This coupled with height rises will bring the first 90
degree day to much of the area as highs are expected to reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Thursday, will bring our first round of
dangerous heat to the area as continued strong WAA coupled with
height rises will allow highs to rise into the low to mid 90s. In
addition to the heat moisture will be building in the area with
dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s...this will yield
heat index values of 100-107 degrees. As such, a heat advisory will
likely be needed for much if not all of the forecast area. Also, on
Thursday a upper level trough will dig from the Upper Midwest into
the Great Lakes. This will force a cold front into the area Thursday
evening into Thursday night allowing storms to develop. These storms
will have the potential to be severe as extreme instability on the
order of 3500-5000J/Kg will be in place. Bulk shear will not be
particularly strong between 30-40kts however, steep mid-level lapse
rates will allow very large hail to be possible, will damaging winds
also a threat. This cold front and associated storms will exit the
area by Friday morning however, with a CAA behind the front
temperatures will still remain above normal in the mid 80s to near
90 Friday.

Friday night, a warm front will lift north across the area with WAA
advection wing round of showers and thunderstorms possible. Saturday
into Sunday a slow moving mid level shortwave will move from the
southern High Plains into the local area which will continue
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Highs
this weekend will be in the low to mid 90s. With extreme
instability in place, particularly on Saturday, isolated severe
storms may be possible. Heat will continue into the early part of
next week as the local remains under the influence off a upper level
ridge over the southeastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

No concerns for aviators as VFR conds are expected thru the TAF
pd. Sct cigs around 9kft are expected thru 00Z-02Z before skies
clr. Winds will be out of the SW around 10kts thru 00Z-02Z when
they will back to the south and diminish to 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73