164
FXUS63 KEAX 110453
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs are forecast to reach the mid 90s and heat indices in
  the 100 to 105 range by Thursday afternoon.

- Severe storms will be possible Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Surface high pressure over the area this afternoon is making for a
very pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. High
pressure will remain in control tonight allowing for good radiational
cooling and lows bottoming out in the 50s. Tomorrow, high pressure
will slowly shift east of the area with modest WAA developing which
will allow highs to rise into the 80s. Wednesday, height rises
coupled with strong WAA will allow highs to eclipse the 90s for the
first time this season with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Continued height rises and WAA on Thursday will allow highs to rise
into the low to mid 90s as moisture increases out ahead of a
approaching cold front. This will allow heat index values to rise to
100 to 105 and a heat advisory may be needed.

Thursday night, a upper level trough will dig through the Great
Lakes forcing a cold front into the area. The area will be under
northern periphery of a upper level ridge over the southern Plains.
A few subtle shortwave are expected to round this ridge and ride on
northwest flow into the local area. This will allow thunderstorms to
develop over the area where 2500-3000J/kg of MUCAPE will be
available with strong mid-level shear. Consequently, severe storms
may be possible with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
Storms are expected to exit the area Friday as a quick moving
surface ridge of high pressure moves into the area Friday.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler but still above normal
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Model differences bring
into question the evolution of a upper level trough that may impact
the area this weekend. The GFS is weaker with a upper level trough
over the region and brings lead shortwaves into the area out ahead
of a upper level trough moving through the eastern Rockies. This
solution would bring thunderstorms to the area Friday night into
Saturday. The EC is much strong with the upper level ridge over the
region forcing the bulk of precipitation north of the area keep the
area dry and hot. Highs this weekend look to be in the low to mid
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR cloud cover is starting to filter in across the area with
passing system to the north. Shower activity is expected to
remain north of the terminals through the TAF period. Winds
should be just strong enough to inhibit most fog development,
but will need to watch STJ in the river valley and overall fog
trends.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Krull