341
FXUS66 KEKA 132239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
339 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather expected through the weekend. A cooling
trend is expected to continue on Friday and moderate to near
seasonal levels this weekend. Much stronger westerly to
northwesterly winds are expected in the interior this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES-West satellite imagery shows continue shifting
eastward, while an upper level trough centered over the Gulf of
Alaska. Stratus has scattered out with the daytime heating,
although stratus near-coastal locations are expected to persist
with the sea breeze for the North Coast. Inland temperatures has
been running up to 7 degrees cooler compared to yesterday`s
reading.

A weak and dry cold front will move over the area early Friday.
Inland temperatures are expected to continue cool down additional
5 to 10 degrees on Friday, and then moderate through the weekend
with temperatures near normal. Stratus and marine layer depth
will probably increase on Friday in response to a shortwave
through that is forecast to move into the Pac NW on Saturday.
Slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with clear skies
should result in chilly overnight temperatures once winds decouple.
There is a chance (20-40%) for brief morning frost in the colder
valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties this weekend and
early next week.


Prime concern heading into the weekend is potential for strong
and gusty westerly to northwesterly winds in the interior,
particularly in Lake, Trinity and Mendocino due to the low RH`s.
See fire weather section for more details. Peak gusts from 25 to
40 mph are probable, with lower probabilities for gusts to 40-50
mph. Strongest winds will most likely occur on Sunday evening
with the passage of a 500mb shortwave trough. Windy conditions in
the interior will probably continue into Monday.

This trough is forecast to be relatively dry and right now the
potential for any precipitation is quite meager, 5-10% chance for
Del Norte late this weekend. Models diverge on the track of the
500mb trough. Minuscule amounts of rain is not impossible for Del
Norte and northern Humboldt on Monday. Wetting rain chances are
meager with NBM probabilities for greater than 0.10in no more than
13% for Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. NBM has
temperatures remaining near seasonal normals early next week,
followed by gradual warming mid to late next week. /ZVS&DB


&&

.AVIATION...IFR ceilings and reduced visibility are
expected to gradually improve by the late afternoon at KACV and
KCEC. Overcast skies will scatter out as the cloud base lifts with
mixing and stronger winds developing. This will be short lived as
HREF suggest LIFR ceilings as low clouds return to the coast by 6z
or so. No LLWS expected during this TAF period yet winds will be
build before sunset at KCEC, around 0z - 2z. KUKI will have
prevailing VFR conditions with northerly winds picking up tomorrow
afternoon. /EYS


&&

.MARINE...Gale force winds gusting up to 40 knots continue in the
Southern inner and outer waters through the weekend. The sea state
remains hazardous with 10 to 13 ft waves at 8 to 10 seconds. Steep
square waves will persist but diminish in wave height, particularly
in the northern outer waters. South of Cape Mendocino, gales force
gusts will continue with the expansion fan into Friday. Currently,
the expansion fan drifts more into the southern inner waters Friday,
which could lead to the return of gales near-shore, but these will
subside below gales by Friday evening. Gales in the southern outer
waters will pause Friday evening and return by Saturday afternoon.
The sea state will continue to be characterized by northerly wind
waves and mid-period northwesterly swells through the weekend.
/JB /EYS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...West to northwest winds are expected to develop on
Friday, and then strengthen across the interior this weekend.
The strongest west to northwest winds gusting from 25 to 40 mph
will most likely occur on Sunday and then continue into Monday,
with the strongest winds expected Sunday evening. Very dry
conditions with low daytime RH`s in the 20`s and teens are
expected to continue through the foreseeable future, primarily in
Lake and Trinity counties, and interior Mendocino. Overnight RH`s
are expected to increase slightly during the weekend. However,
there will be no doubt be poor recoveries where light to moderate
ridge level breezes persist each night. The strong winds and low
humidity will yield an elevated fire weather threat Sunday morning
through Monday afternoon, particularly for the south and east
side of Lake County. Have to hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for
elevations below 2000 feet in zone 264 (southern Lake). /ZVS




&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Fire Weather Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for CAZ264.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT Friday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Friday for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png