Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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130 FXUS62 KFFC 081731 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 One more day of nice dewpoints before moisture begins to return to the area - with a more summerlike feel. High pressure and dry conditions will persist today. Daytime dewpoints in the 50s are expected across the CWA which will result in RH values between 30 and 40 percent. Not much cloud cover around today, but mid/high clouds will start to increase overnight into early Sunday. Models are progging a weak frontal boundary to begin sagging southward towards far north GA on Sunday. There are some indications within the thickness pattern a MCS may graze far northern portions of the front as is nears the area. Not confident enough to go likely pops for now, and will cap at high end chance across the GA/NC/TN border. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A digging trough over the Great Lakes Region will help to shove the stationary boundary further south. This, combined with area wide PWATs of 1.75"+, will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. CAPE values ahead of the front Monday morning will be ~1000 J/Kg and some light shear may be enough for a few storms to become strong. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will all be possible through Monday. Models seem to have gotten their act together when it comes to resolving the evolution of the digging trough. The trough will bottom out near the GA/FL border, and should be enough to push the frontal boundary out of the CWA. This will likely mean a short dry period on Tuesday with PWATs behind the front of only 0.75" or less. Wednesday will see a return to the wet pattern, though, with a surge of tropical moisture. Models are also being much more consistent with this feature than previous runs. Weak tropical low development over the gulf will drift northward on Wednesday bringing with it a surge of much juicier air, pushing the front northward once again. PoPs increase as PWATs potentially climb into 2-2.5" range by Friday afternoon (gross). Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday onward with this surge of moisture and we will have to continue to monitor moisture advection for any potential flooding risks. SM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Mid to upper level clouds will increase in coverage this evening and into the overnight hours. Scattered SHRA/TSRA is anticipated during the daytime on Sunday, but should stay north of the TAF sites. A scattered cu field around 050-060 is expected in the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds directions will be tricky to start the period given wind speeds of 5 kts or less. Winds are currently mainly on the E side, but forecast to shift to W in the mid- afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on wind direction and timing of wind shift. High confidence on all other elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 92 68 86 / 10 20 20 30 Atlanta 69 93 70 85 / 0 20 20 30 Blairsville 63 82 61 78 / 10 40 20 30 Cartersville 65 90 66 84 / 10 30 20 20 Columbus 68 96 73 91 / 0 10 10 30 Gainesville 67 88 68 83 / 10 20 20 20 Macon 67 97 72 90 / 0 0 10 30 Rome 66 90 67 85 / 10 30 20 20 Peachtree City 66 95 69 87 / 0 10 10 30 Vidalia 69 98 74 93 / 0 10 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...King