Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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952 FXUS62 KFFC 060612 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 212 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Remnant MCV/vortmax continues eastern progression through the CWA and is currently almost centered in it. Some showers and storms fired up primarily to the east of the feature in region of slight PVA earlier this afternoon and will continue through east Georgia this afternoon. Mild subsidence is likely occurring on the back side of this feature and helping to suppress convection in portions of western GA despite copious moisture and ample afternoon heating. Do think we still could hit the convective T at some point in these areas and have a few showers or rumbles of thunder, so maintained a 30 percent chances across much of the area outside of west central Georgia which has been worked over from earlier convection. Given upper levels are pretty warm, any convection that goes up likely won`t be long lived, so severe threat is extremely low. An initial front will approach the CWA tomorrow but models are showing forcing for it waning and it stalling and mostly washing out across the CWA. This means it won`t really provide much in the way of lift via surface convergence, so model PoPs continue the trend of lowering. Do believe we will see some diurnally driven airmass storms out ahead of this during the afternoon, and won`t rule out something getting a bit spicy, but the severe threat remains very low in the absence of any shear or upper level support. Another stronger front will approach during the overnight hours and bring a much drier airmass into the CWA as we go into the long term forecast period on Friday. High tomorrow will be in the 80s, likely somewhat tampered by afternoon cloud cover. Copious moisture remains in place with dewpoints likely into the upper 60s to lower 70s, giving us some "air we can wear". Lows will be in the 60s tonight and tomorrow night, though with cooler, drier air filtering in Thursday night, we could see some upper 50s in the far north. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 For now, no widespread significant weather impacts are expected throughout the long term forecast. The long term forecast kicks off with a pleasant period of quiet weather as a cold front is expected to bring an unseasonably dry airmass to the forecast area. While northwesterly flow typically spells trouble during the summer, this dry airmass will limit convective activity and bring dewpoints in the 50s to much of north Georgia, which will feel more spring-like compared to the typical summertime dewpoints in the 70s. While daytime max temperatures will still be quite warm in the 80s to low 90s, overnight low temperatures Friday going into Saturday morning will be as low a the upper 50s across portions of north Georgia. Quiet weather conditions will persist through much of the day Saturday before a deep trough is poised to bring the next round of active weather. Yet another frontal boundary will approach the forecast area and is set to bring an organized line of convection late Saturday evening into early Sunday. North Georgia is expected to see the bulk of the activity from this system during the day Sunday before coverage of showers and thunderstorms progress further south with the front by Monday. A reinforcing shortwave rounding the base of the trough will help that front clear the forecast area by Monday before the boundary becomes stalled over northern Florida. This boundary will then serve as the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development where the northern extent of this activity is expected to bring scattered storms over portions of central Georgia. At this time, widespread severe weather or flooding related issues are expected. This front does, however, appear to bring temperatures that will be running a tad cooler than average across more portions of the area early next week. KAL && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 152 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The line of showers and thunderstorms has moved E of the Atlanta metro area and weakened. A few showers may make it to AHN shortly, otherwise, generally quiet wx is expected through the rest of the night. However, some MVFR cigs are possible toward daybreak. A cold front will move into the area later today, with isolated to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near and S of the front. The HRRR is not overly optimistic on storm development, but there should be enough destabilization during the afternoon to couple with weak dynamic forcing. Most of this activity should develop S of the Atlanta metro and AHN areas. List SW winds will veer to more westerly by afternoon with some gusts near 20 knots. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium regarding morning cigs and afternoon thunderstorm development. High for all other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 85 60 86 / 20 0 0 0 Atlanta 68 85 62 87 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 60 77 54 77 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 84 58 85 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 70 90 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 66 83 60 83 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 69 90 62 90 / 30 10 0 0 Rome 66 86 59 86 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 66 87 60 88 / 10 0 0 0 Vidalia 71 92 66 91 / 30 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....KAL AVIATION...SEC