996
FXUS65 KFGZ 230408
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
908 PM MST Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place
across northern Arizona through Saturday leading to near critical
fire weather conditions across northeast Arizona. On Sunday, high
pressure will bring lighter winds and a warming trend that is
forecast to persist through the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Quiet night with winds starting to drop off this evening
across the region. Smoke and haze are still around from prescribed
burns and wildfires and will start to settle into low lying and
drainage areas tonight.

Forecast looks good and only minor edits were needed with the
update this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /419 PM MST/...For the remainder of this afternoon and tonight,
expect a continuation of clear skies and dry weather. Wind speeds
will decrease after 2 pm MST, with low temperatures Thursday
morning ranging from the low-30s to the low-50s at most places.

From Thursday through Saturday, a zonal flow pattern will remain
in place allowing a couple of dry low pressure systems to impact
the area. No precipitation is expected, but breezy southwest winds
and low afternoon humidity will combine to produce near critical
fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday near the Little
Colorado River Valley. At this point, Friday afternoon appears to
have the greatest potential for critical fire weather, with a
30-50% chance of exceeding Red Flag conditions.

On Sunday, high pressure will build over the area leading to a
decrease in wind speeds and a warming trend. By the middle of next
week, northern Arizona may see high temperatures between 5-10
degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 23/00Z through Friday 24/00Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions through the TAF period except for reduced
visibilities from smoke due to prescribed burns. SW winds of
10-20 kts will continue through 02Z, before light/variable winds
return overnight. After 16Z, gusty SW winds will return.

OUTLOOK...Friday 24/00Z through Sunday 26/00Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected throughout the outlook period, but localized
reduced visibilities will continue from prescribed burns. Expect
gusty SW winds each afternoon, becoming lighter overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Mild temperatures and dry
conditions will continue through the end of the week. Southwest
winds 15-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph expected both afternoons.
Minimum RH values will range between 8-20%.

Saturday through Monday...A warming trend will take place into next
week, with dry conditions remaining. West-southwest winds 15-25 mph
gusting 30-40 mph on Saturday, becoming light west winds Sunday and
Monday. Minimum RH values will gradually decrease from 15-25% on
Saturday to mostly single digits on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/RR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff