Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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155 FXUS65 KFGZ 211608 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 908 AM MST Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for dry, breezy, and mild weather through the rest of the week with near normal temperatures. && .UPDATE...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and westerly breezes are in store for Arizona today. The ignition of a few prescribed fires later may produce areas of smoke and haze from Williams to Flagstaff, so don`t be surprised if air quality deteriorates this afternoon and evening. The current forecast is on track and only minor updates were made to the sky cover grids. && .PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...A dry (at least for Arizona) longwave troughing pattern will remain over the western states into the coming weekend. For Today and Wednesday...Surface pressure gradients relax some compared to Monday for more typical afternoon breezes from the west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph locally gusting to near 30 mph. There will be a bit of haze and smoke here and there across our area due to various wildfires and prescribed burning. Otherwise, look for mainly clear skies with just a few clouds at times near the Arizona/Utah border. Daytime temperatures will warm some today, especially over higher elevation locations, to just below seasonal averages then remain steady on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...A pair of dry shortwave troughs whip through the longwave pattern over the west. The result for northern Arizona will be stronger surface pressure gradients. Look for afternoon winds to increase becoming southwest at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph. More windy than breezy for most of us in northern Arizona. The strongest of these winds will be on Thursday and Friday but could linger into Saturday over eastern portions of the state. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will continue with perhaps a few degrees of cooling to daytime temperature with the passage of those shortwave troughs. From Sunday into early next week...A more persistent high pressure system than we have seen in a while could develop over the southwest for a distinct warmup. A little far out to have much confidence. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 21/12Z through Wednesday 22/12Z...Occasional MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU, otherwise VFR. Winds W/SW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts before 02Z, then becoming light and variable. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/12Z through Friday 24/12Z...Occasional MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU, otherwise VFR. Winds SW 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with mild temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on Wednesday. Afternoon minimum RH values 8-18%. Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph during the afternoon on Thursday and Friday, with lighter winds returning by Saturday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji/McCollum AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff