Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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747 FXUS64 KFWD 301938 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 238 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ Update: Storms have lingered across North Texas longer than expected, resulting in heavy rain and some flash flooding. The back edge of the MCV is beginning to move into the western zones so storm coverage should decrease from west to east through the afternoon and evening. Substantial rainfall this afternoon, and the expected rainfall tonight through Friday will warrant a Flood Watch through Friday afternoon. For now we put locations along and north of I-20 in the Watch based on the heaviest rain early this week and what is currently falling. The Flood Watch may need to be expanded southward in later forecast depending on what falls the remainder of the afternoon. The temperature forecast for this afternoon is very tricky since rain-cooled air in the north is keeping temperatures in the 60s while south of the outflow, temperatures have hit the 90s. There should still be some afternoon warming in the north as the rain moves out but highs may not get out of the 70s. 79 Previous Discussion: /This afternoon through Friday/ Numerous thunderstorms associated with an early morning storm complex continues to move across North Texas at this time. The good news is that storms have stayed below severe limits thus far but that could change as we destabilize through the afternoon. The best destabilization will occur across Central Texas where dew points are currently in the middle 70s and some afternoon sun is expected. The main threat with storms this afternoon will be from gusty outflow winds and hail. High resolution solutions have been in good agreement that this initial round of storms will exit to the south and east late this afternoon, leaving the early evening hours generally rain-free, outside of a few stray storms, mainly across Central Texas. Our focus will shift to the west this evening as storms organize along the dryline and the western extent of the morning outflow boundary. These storms will move eastward through the evening with shortwave energy embedded in zonal flow aloft. Linear organization is likely as these storms head east. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards, but a brief tornado or two within the line will be possible. Storm chances will decrease from west to east during the day Friday with subsident air on the back side of the departing system. However, the atmosphere may have time to recover during the afternoon, so we will not take out PoPs completely. Models continue to show a low chance of showers and storms Friday evening/overnight with subtle shortwave energy moving through northwest flow aloft. We will maintain some low PoPs (20%-40%) to account for this, but most locations will escape additional rainfall Friday night. Plenty of clouds and rain-cooled air will keep high temperatures generally below seasonal normals this afternoon and Friday with lower and middle 80s. Lows tonight will range from the middle 60s to around 70. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Through The Upcoming Week/ An unsettled pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend, with convective activity mainly concentrated along two regions across our area. The first of which will be along our western counties as dryline convection continues to propagate to the east overnight, with the second being along the Red River and across North Texas through the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday. Additional convection will push through portions of the region once again through the start of next week as the pattern will remain largely unchanged. With several rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving through overnight into the morning hours each day, strong to severe weather will be possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a very low chance for tornadoes. Of course, these specific hazards will depend on a variety of factors. Placement of surface boundaries and outflow boundary interactions will largely influence the extent and coverage of any severe weather. These features will be closely monitored each day as real-time analysis and high-res model guidance allow us to get a much better handle on potential hazards through the upcoming days. Conversely, it is also possible that mesoscale interactions lessen the severe threat - such as is the case with outflow dominant, multi-cell thunderstorms that lack a substantially strong cold pool. It`s difficult to nail these specific mesoscale phenomena several days out, which only adds to the emphasis to continue to remain weather aware through the next several days as details can be further refined and the forecast gains additional value. Furthermore, the threat for additional flooding will remain in place through the start of next week as well as heavy rainfall will be possible at times. It won`t take much to cause issues, so stay on your feet for additional flooding. A potential pattern shift may be on the horizon, which would lessen our chances for showers and thunderstorms considerably. This would also lead to an increase in afternoon highs, with temperatures gradually climbing through the end of next week. This is the direct result of the mid level ridge currently located across our west strengthening and pushing more into the Central/Southern Plains. This will effectively cut off the unsettled pattern that we`ve been in as of late, or at least slow it down considerably. Our attention will begin to turn toward the potential heat, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. This could result in heat indices reaching between 100 to 105 through the end of the week, which may begin to cause issues related to heat illness. Reeves && .AVIATION... /Issued 1150 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Thunderstorm timing will be the primary concern to aviation with this forecast. Scattered storms currently over D10 will continue off and on through early this afternoon. Most storms will move to the east with a passing shortwave energy later this afternoon, leaving most of the evening storm-free. The next round of storms will develop across West Texas late this afternoon/evening. The best window of time for the storms to impact all TAF sites will be between 05Z and 10Z. Strong and gusty winds, heavy rain and even some hail will be likely with the overnight storms. Most of the thunderstorm activity will move east of the TAF sites after 12Z. Mainly MVFR ceilings late this morning will lift above 3000 ft by mid-afternoon with VFR expected once the storms depart later this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return with the line of storms overnight. A south to southeast wind will remain in the 5 to 12 knot range through Friday morning, except for gusty and erratic winds in and near any thunderstorm. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 83 71 86 72 / 70 60 30 40 20 Waco 68 82 70 85 72 / 60 60 20 50 10 Paris 67 79 67 84 69 / 80 80 50 40 20 Denton 66 81 68 86 70 / 70 70 30 40 20 McKinney 67 81 69 85 71 / 70 70 40 40 20 Dallas 68 82 71 87 72 / 70 60 30 40 20 Terrell 68 81 69 85 71 / 70 70 30 50 20 Corsicana 70 83 72 86 73 / 60 70 30 50 10 Temple 68 84 71 86 72 / 50 70 20 50 10 Mineral Wells 67 82 69 86 71 / 80 50 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123. && $$