008
FXUS64 KFWD 140900
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Yesterday`s weak cold front has pushed well southeast of the area
tonight although its associated meager cool/dry advection was
insufficient to scour seasonably high dewpoints from East and
Central Texas. As a result, areas of fog are beginning to develop
where dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s remain, which is
primarily east of I-45 corridor. A small Dense Fog Advisory may
become necessary depending on the longevity of visibility
reductions through the course of the predawn hours.

Following a quick dissipation of any remaining fog shortly after
sunrise, mostly clear and dry weather will prevail the rest of
the day with highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s. Some late
afternoon convective activity is possible west of the CWA as
southerly flow resumes and moisture makes a quick return to the
Big Country, but this activity is not expected to survive into
the western portions of the forecast area this evening. Stronger
southerly flow and warm advection will maintain a warming trend
into Wednesday with highs in the neighborhood of 90 degrees. A
shortwave trough will be approaching the area from the west within
progressive zonal flow aloft, and this will bring an increase in
high cloud cover by late tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
with this feature should hold off until later Wednesday evening
which is addressed in the long term portion of the forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Through Early Next Week/

After a much-needed reprieve from excessive rainfall, our next storm
system will approach during the latter half of the week. Downstream
ripples will begin spreading across the Lone Star State on
Wednesday, helping a West Texas dryline to come alive. This
convection may make a charge at North Texas after dark, but a more
likely scenario is for overnight initiation mainly west of the I-35
corridor as a low-level jet enhances the moisture depth.

Moist advection will intensity further into Thursday as large-
scale forcing for ascent clutters the radar scope with echoes.
While global guidance has the synoptic features fairly well
matched in space and time, where the showers and storms focus
themselves on Thursday will be largely driven by mesoscale
inputs. While this continues to result in significant
discrepancies among available QPF guidance, it still appears that
the bulk of the activity will be south of the I-20 corridor where
considerable rainfall amounts have already occurred this month.
Calendar-day totals of 1 to 3 inches on Thursday, with
convectively enhanced higher amounts, would reaggravate flooding
issues. A Moderate risk for excessive rainfall has been introduced
for areas that are both south of I-20 and east of I-35, and with
the current trajectory of the forecast, a Flood Watch will likely
be needed for Thursday.

Convective elements on Thursday will be enhanced by both rich
boundary layer moisture and considerable shear, setting the stage
for another round of severe weather. Unless overnight/morning
activity can set up a boundary, a well-defined focus for
initiationwill be missing. In addition, multi-cell clusters with
rain-cooled outflow may limit the instability. On the other hand,
these may set up mesoscale boundaries along which untapped
parcels could quickly convect. While there is considerable
uncertainty at this time scale, and flooding appears to be the
primary concern Thursday, residents should keep abreast of the
forecast and the potential for severe storms as well.

The upper system will linger on Friday, potentially allowing for
another round of significant rainfall across Central and East
Texas. However, guidance is consistent with its eventually passage
to our east, allowing the sun to return and temperatures to climb
back above normal during the upcoming weekend. Ridging aloft will
push the mercury above 90F across much of the region early next
week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with a few cirrus being the
extent of sky cover. Patchy fog will be present across parts of
East and Central Texas this morning but will remain well east of
the TAF sites. Light northwest winds of 5-8 kts will return to
southeasterly after 00z this evening where they will remain into
Wednesday.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  66  91  69  79 /   0   0   0  30  70
Waco                85  64  88  67  77 /   0   0   0  30  80
Paris               82  59  87  67  79 /   0   0   0  10  50
Denton              84  62  90  66  77 /   0   5   0  30  70
McKinney            84  62  88  68  77 /   0   0   0  20  60
Dallas              87  65  91  69  79 /   0   0   0  30  70
Terrell             84  62  88  67  78 /   0   0   0  20  70
Corsicana           86  65  90  68  80 /   0   0   0  20  80
Temple              87  63  88  67  79 /   0   0   5  30  80
Mineral Wells       87  64  91  66  77 /   5   0  10  50  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ121-122-
135-146>148-160>162-175.

&&

$$