644
FXUS62 KGSP 100724
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves south of the CFWA becoming stationary through mid
week with dry conditions under weak high pressure for Monday through
Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the
north. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 am Monday: A series of short waves will carve out a long
wave trough across the East through the period. The leading edge of
an attendant, quasi-stationary frontal zone is located just south of
the forecast area. As usual for a late spring front, lower theta-E
air lags well behind the wind shift, so ample moisture lingers,
especially across the southern half of the area. UVV associated with
entrance region of an upper jet max is helping support an area of
mainly light/moderate showers from the upper Savannah River Valley
through the Upstate. This will warrant likely PoPs across much of
this area through sunrise. Isolated TS will also be possible,
primarily across the Lakelands and vicinity. The upper trough is
expected to deepen enough to send the frontal boundary comfortably
southeast of the area by afternoon, bringing clearing skies and an
end to shower chances for much of the area, although some isolated
terrain-induced diurnal showers are possible. Falling heights will
result in max temps about a category below climo. Under rather good
radiational cooling conditions and dry air, min temps tonight will
be around 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday: Frontal boundary will be located well south
of the CFWA by the beginning portions of the short term as a weak
continental surface high builds in from the northwest. Lingering
cyclonic flow aloft will gradually shift eastward Tuesday into
Tuesday night as a shortwave rounds the base of the upper trough
and pushes the trough axis offshore by Tuesday night. Temperatures
on Tuesday will likely be the lowest from D2-D7 as lower thicknesses
remain in place overhead with near-normal values. Height rises will
work back into the region for Wednesday in response to the exiting
trough axis, which will help to moderate the airmass and allow
afternoon highs for Wednesday to uptick a category or so to slightly
above normal values across the CFWA. Model guidance generally agree
with shifting the surface high just offshore the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolina Coast Wednesday night to bring in a light Atlantic fetch,
which could initiate a shower or thunderstorm along the favorable
facing slopes on the eastern Blue Ridge Escarpment. Only shallow
low-level moisture and weak forcing keeps forecast confidence low
and will maintain non-mentionable PoPs for now until the CAMs pick
up on this development over the next 12-24 hours. Otherwise, the
sensible weather will be mostly dry with temperatures rebounding
by midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday: Run to run consistency beginning to get
better compared to the previous few forecast updates. Sensible
weather remains dry through Thursday before diurnal convection
enters back into the forecast by Friday as a weak backdoor
front slips into the area. At the same time, the airmass will
continue to get warmer as an upper anti-cyclone deepens over the
central CONUS and shifts over the eastern CONUS by the end of the
upcoming weekend. Very warm thicknesses (590+ dm) will likely
cause temperatures to rise well above average with some of the
guidance indicating afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s east of
the mountains by D6/D7. Surface low that develops over the Gulf
will struggle to shift this far north without a clear steering
flow as it meanders over the eastern Gulf with a semblance of a
Rex Block forming over the southeastern CONUS. A warming trend
will continue through the extended forecast period with highs ~10
degrees above normal for both highs and lows by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A frontal boundary will continue sagging
south across the region through the morning. Ample moisture will
linger in the vicinity of the boundary this morning, but extensive
high and mid-level clouds will limit the potential for restrictions
in low stratus and/or fog this morning. Meanwhile scattered showers,
and perhaps a TS or two are expected to develop in or move into the
area prior to daybreak...mainly impacting upstate South Carolina.
KAND stands the greatest chance of seeing shower activity, and a
tempo is included there from 07-11Z. VCSH is carried at KGMU/KGSP,
while shower chances appear minimal at the NC terminals. Otherwise,
other than a tempo for 5SM at KAVL later this morning, VFR is
forecast through the period. Cloud cover is expected to steadily
clear from around sunrise through the morning, with mostly SKC
conditions at all terminals by early afternoon. Light winds with a
northerly component are anticipated through much of the period,
except for a brief excursion to light SW this afternoon.

Outlook: Dry sfc high pressure will become established this
afternoon, and generally remain through the end of the work week,
with little chance for convection or restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL