510
FXUS62 KGSP 030515
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
115 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A typical summer pattern is returning during the first half of the
week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances.  Showers and
thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage for Wednesday and
Thursday as a weak cold front approaches our area.  Drier weather is
expected to return by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...isolated showers will linger this morning
across the NE GA and the Upstate. This activity will continue to
weaken and dissipate of the next few hours with no good thunder
threat. A good chance of patchy to areas of fog formation
before daybreak over most of the fcst area. Some of this fog
will become dense with a 1/2 mile or less vsby, more likely
across the NC mtns and fthills, and will monitor this potential
for a possible fog product.

Otherwise, an upper shortwave trof will translate over our fcst area
and help push a weakening upper ridge off the Atlantic Coast today
while heights begin to rebound as upper ridging starts to build over
the Southeast again. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to
slowly move further off the SE Coast as a moist frontal boundary
gradually moves thru our fcst area and eventually washes out to our
east. This will result in profiles undergoing some amount of drying
today. Nonetheless, we will remain under warming SLY low-level flow
which will likely produce another round of diurnal, isolated to sct
showers and thunderstorms, yet the severe potential still appears
minimal at best. In addition, temperatures will rebound today to
near, if not slightly above, normal values under less cloud cover
and increasing thicknesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 pm Sunday: A weak short wave ridge will meander across the
region through much of the period, before shunting to the Coast by
Wed evening, as an area of large scale height falls overspreads the
Appalachians and vicinity. SW low level flow will provide the heat
and humidity for diurnal deep convection Tue afternoon...although
coverage is expected to be somewhat limited due to weak anticyclonic
flow aloft and relatively low precipitable water values. Moderate
instability should nevertheless allow for isolated to widely
scattered coverage (20-40 PoPs) across much of the area, esp the
high terrain.

A cold front associated with aforementioned height falls will enter
the picture from the west by the end of Wednesday, enhancing diurnal
convective chances during the afternoon/evening, especially over the
mountains, where 60-70 PoPs are warranted. A consensus of short term
guidance suggests destabilization could be quite robust Wed
afternoon, with sbCAPE of 2000+ J/kg likely. Shear parameters are
forecast to be quite meager, but 0-3km shear of 15-20 kts could
support some local cell clustering along outflow boundaries which
would pose a threat of isolated downbursts, while a few pulse severe
storms also appear to be a good bet. With the front expected to
steadily cross the region Wed night, some degree of convective
coverage will likely persist long after the end of the diurnal
heating cycle, albeit with a warning risk of strong-to-severe
convection. Temps are expected to be a category or so above climo
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 pm Sunday: A trough associated with a deep upper low is
expected to develop across the East early in the extended...
gradually shifting off the East Coast through the period. An
associated frontal boundary is expected to be draped over or near
the forecast area at the start of the period, with scattered
convection (generally 30-50 PoPs) expected from late morning through
the afternoon Thursday. Lower theta-E air is expected to begin
filtering in from the west by the end of the day, bringing an end to
substantial convective chances from Friday through next weekend,
although a few showers (PoPs 30% at most) will be possible across
the mountains within deep NW/upslope flow regime Friday through
Sunday. Other than a stretch of near-to-slightly below normal
temperatures expected Fri night through Sat night, temps are
expected to remain a category or so above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Flight conds will lower thru the overnight
across all terminals with IFR/LIFR more likely at KAVL and KHKY arnd
daybreak. Other terminals shud see mainly MVFR conds, with TEMPO IFR
due to CIGS. Active weather continues this afternoon with showers
and thunderstorms returning to the area. The extend of tstm coverage
will be rather low and confidence is below avg for storms at any
given airport. However, the best chance thunder will be at KAVL,
KHKY where prob30s have been included due to more distinct upper
energy traversing the flow over these locales. Overall shra/tstm
coverage arnd the other sites only warrant a VCTS at KAND and VCSH
elsewhere, including KCLT. Winds will remain low to moderate and
aligned s/ly to sw/ly across the area today.

Outlook: Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances with associated
restrictions will linger thru the middle of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK