329
FXHW60 PHFO 221928
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
928 AM HST Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Gentle to locally breezy east to southeast winds will continue to
produce clouds and showers along windward and mauka areas, with a
few clouds and showers developing over sheltered interior and
leeward sections of the state this afternoon and evening. Moderate
to breezy easterly trade winds will spread over the state tonight
into Thursday and linger through the first half of next week,
with showers favoring typical windward and mauka areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest surface analysis shows a trough of low pressure around
450 miles west-northwest of Kauai, with a 1034 mb high centered
around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu. Satellite imagery
shows thinning high and mid level clouds around Kauai with low
clouds building along windward and mauka area as well as some
clouds building along sheltered leeward areas this morning as a
seabreeze develops. Radar shows scattered showers moving in along
Big Island and Maui southeast shores and isolated showers along
windward and mauka areas elsewhere.

Moderate to locally breezy east to southeast winds will
transition to more easterly later today and tonight. High pressure
will slowly shift north of the state later today, and a series of
reinforcing highs will build to our north through the first half
of next week. This will allow trade winds to strengthen across the
region, with moderate to breezy easterly trade winds expected
statewide by Thursday and continuing into much of next week.
Guidance also shows drier air filtering into the region over the
coming days. This will allow a more dry and stable trade wind
pattern to develop. Expect windward and mauka showers to increase
in intensity and coverage during the overnight and early morning
hours, with a few of these showers briefly spilling over into
leeward areas. This pattern should hold through the first half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to locally breezy east to southeast winds will persist
into Thursday and VFR conditions will generally prevail. However,
moisture riding in on the trades will focus clouds and a few
showers over windward areas, particularly for the eastern end of
the state where MVFR conditions will be more likely. Winds may be
light enough over Oahu and Kauai to see some sea breeze action,
piling up clouds and a few showers over interior and leeward areas
this afternoon. MVFR conditions will be possible with any
showers, but VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward areas of Maui and the Big Island. While conditions have
improved some this morning, satellite shows some more moisture
upstream, so this AIRMET may be needed through today and possibly
into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure far northeast of the state is driving fresh
to strong easterly trade winds around the Big Island and Maui, and
a surface trough nearly 400 nm northwest of Kauai continues to
cause winds to shift out of the east-southeast over Oahu and
Kauai. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Thursday
afternoon for all waters around the Big Island, waters north of
Maui, and the Pailolo Channel. As the trough weakens and drifts
westward, expect the stronger easterly trades winds to spread to
Oahu and Kauai tonight and Thursday. Moderate to strong easterly
trade winds will persist into the weekend, and the SCA may be
reduced to the typically windy waters around the Big Island and
Maui by Thursday night.

The current south swell has declined to around 2 feet at 13
seconds at the local PacIOOS buoys this morning and will fade out
tonight. Surf along south and exposed west shores is dropping
below seasonal average today, and with only small inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell due for the rest of the week, small surf
will prevail. The next significant south-southwest swell will be
about a week and a half away.

The windward PacIOOS buoys are showing trade wind generated seas
of about 6 to 7 feet at 7 to 8 seconds this morning, which is
producing rough east shore surf around the seasonal average. Surf
along east facing shores will be near current levels or slightly
higher during the next few days, with a slight decrease possible
early next week. Surf along north shores will remain very small
with a slight bump possible Sunday and Monday.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast
Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Wroe