308
FXUS66 KHNX 132104
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
204 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley will hover
between 95 and 100 degrees through Friday before a cooling trend
brings temperatures closer to climatological averages for the
weekend. Monday temperatures are forecast to be around 4 to 7
degrees below normal.

2. Isolated strong thunderstorms have a 15 to 30 percent chance
of occurrence this afternoon and early evening along the Sierra
Nevada crest from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP.

3. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will
continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers
and waterways.

4. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert slopes
each late afternoon through overnight from Friday through Monday.
Afternoon and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin
Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West
Side Mountains Friday through Monday.

5. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will bring
elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County mountains and
desert and the San Joaquin Valley Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low that has been off the southern California coast
for several days now will finally move inland over San Diego this
afternoon as a strong Gulf of Alaska upper low is approaching the
Pacific Northwest coast. The heat from the last couple of days is
waning as a result. 24 hour temperature trends are generally down
around 6 to 9 degrees. High are forecast to still top out around
3 to 7 degrees above climatological averages this afternoon with
most areas in the upper 90s. Probabilities for a high temperature
of 100 degrees this afternoon are 20% (Fresno) or less. There is
up to a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms along the
Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP this afternoon
and early evening. As the weak upper low shifts east and opens up
over the Four Corners region on Friday, weak ridging builds in
behind it. Temperatures in turn are forecast to bump up a degree
or two on Friday but highs will still mainly be in the upper 90s
across the SJ Valley. Probabilities for a high of 100 degrees on
Friday nudge up to as much as 36%.

The Gulf of Alaska upper low moves over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday with a deepening trough across the west. Additional s/wv
energy will maintain the trough throughout the weekend and into
early next week. A cooler air mass will settle in lowering high
temperatures to near climatological averages for the weekend and
then around 4 to 7 degrees below average on Monday. Highs then
trend warmer to near average again by Wednesday and are forecast
to be around 5 to 10 degrees above average next Thursday as high
pressure builds in from the Pacific.

Winds will be on the increase on Friday with strong gusts across
the Mojave Desert Slopes by late afternoon. Probabilities for a
gust to 50 knots (58 mph) is as high as 60%. A High Wind Warning
has been issued for this area from 5 PM Friday through 9 AM on
Saturday. This pattern will allow for strong winds to redevelop
across the Mojave Slopes each late afternoon through overnight
through Monday. The High Wind Watch is now in effect from late
Saturday afternoon through late Monday night. The probabilities
for a gust to 50 knots lower to 40% on Saturday night, but then
increase to 75% on Sunday night and 60% Monday night. Afternoon
and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin Valley
with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side
Mountains Friday through Monday. Relative humidity values will
lower into the teens during the afternoons with poor overnight
recovery in some areas. The combination of gusty winds and low
relative humidities will produce elevated fire weather concerns
across the Kern County mountains and desert and the San Joaquin
Valley Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 5 PM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for
CAZ338.
High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday
night for CAZ338.

&&

$$

DCH

weather.gov/hanford