067
FXUS66 KHNX 130919
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
219 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will hover between 95 and 100 degrees through
Friday in the Central Valley before a cooling trend brings
temperatures closer to seasonal averages for the weekend. Monday
temperatures will be around 2 to 5 degrees below normal.

2. Isolated strong thunderstorms have a 10 to 20 percent chance
of occurrence this afternoon and early evening along the Sierra
Nevada crest from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP.

3. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada,
will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows
along rivers and waterways.

4. Afternoon and evening breezes with locally gusty winds will
prevail at times until at least this weekend near the passes of
the West Side Mountains. Stronger, gusty winds will occur along
the Mojave Desert slopes each afternoon and evening from Friday
through the weekend.

5. The winds coupled with low relative humidity will bring
elevated fire weather concerns to some of the mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds started to increase last evening in northern portions of
our forecast area, and breezy conditions continue at this time,
including gusts around 30-35 mph near Los Banos and Pacheco
Pass as well as nearby areas along the west side of the San
Joaquin Valley. Breezy conditions in these areas as well into
the Kern County mountains and desert combined with low humidity
will produce elevated fire weather concerns. In addition, a
significant amount of grass fires have been occurring in quite a
few areas during the last couple of weeks or so. At this time,
clear skies prevail, and latest water vapor satellite imagery is
depicting the offshore upper-level low offshore of Southern
CA/Northern Baja, or around 30N/120W. This feature will move
northeastward into Southern CA as we progress through today and
will be over the Desert Southwest during the evening into the
overnight hours. In the meantime, high temperatures are
projected to lower in the San Joaquin Valley over the next
couple of days, but more noticeable cooling occurs over the
weekend into early next week. Mainly dry conditions persist,
except for a slight (10-20%) chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada crest, mainly
Yosemite to Sequoia NP, later today. A few strong thunderstorms
remain possible.

Temperatures will gradually lower through Friday with additional
cooling over the weekend. Also, breezy conditions along with
elevated fire concerns will continue along the west side of the
SJ Valley each afternoon and evening through at least this
weekend. However, the chance of triple digit heat in the Central
Valley continues until Friday with a bit higher than today
(20-40 percent, with the best chances from Fresno County to Kern
County) on Friday. In addition, stronger gusty winds develop
along the Mojave Desert slopes beginning Friday afternoon.
Latest NBM (National Blend of Models) probabilistic data
continues to show a high probability (mainly 60 percent and
higher) of gusts above 45 mph for this area from Friday evening
until early Saturday AM and again for Saturday evening into
Sunday. The chances for a gust around 65 mph remain moderate
(about 30-50 percent) for both Friday evening/Saturday morning
and again Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Thus, we
issued a High Wind Watch for these periods, though may need to
extend beyond this period, including Sunday night into early
next week as the overall pattern shows little change until
Tuesday. Despite the increase in winds along the slopes, little
changes in temperatures occur before Sunday in the Kern County
desert, and triple digit heat will prevail until at least
Saturday. Otherwise, mainly seasonal to below average (by around
3-6 degrees) temperatures prevail this weekend into Tuesday of
next week.

Afterward, or by Wednesday and next Thursday, a warming trend
returns to the region, as high pressure ridging over the SW U.S.
builds into Southern and Central CA. Highs will return to above
average, though latest probabilistic data suggests temperatures
rise to around 3 to 7 degrees above seasonal averages. Dry
weather will continue.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
CAZ338.
Heat Advisory until 6 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ304>316-
319-332.

&&

$$

BSO

weather.gov/hanford