Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
530 FXUS66 KHNX 042115 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 215 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Excessive Heat Warning in effect for the lower elevations from 11 AM Wednesday through 8 PM Friday. 2. The Heat Risk will be major(red) from Wednesday through Friday afternoon, which will affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts are likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure. 3. Temperatures will lower this weekend but are forecast to still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 4. The anticipated heat could lead to increased snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION... An upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific is beginning to build inland over California today. The ridge will strengthen over the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. A warming trend will result with maximum temperatures climbing to 15 to 20 degrees above climatological averages on Thursday. Some record high temperatures may be tied or broken. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills, the Kern County desert, and the Kern River Valley from 11 AM Wednesday through 8 PM Friday. There will be a major risk for heat-related illnesses for much of the population, especially for those who are heat sensitive and those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Here are the probabilities for a high temperature of 105 degrees or higher for locations across the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert. Wed Thu Fri Merced 41% 66% 26% Madera 36% 76% 26% Fresno 61% 81% 51% Hanford 41% 76% 41% Visalia 56% 81% 51% Porterville 41% 76% 26% Delano 41% 76% 26% Bakersfield 41% 76% 26% China Lake 91% 96% 86% Edwards AFB 81% 86% 41% The ridge weakens and shifts east this weekend as an Eastern Pacific upper trough approaches the coast. Temperatures will trend lower as a result but are forecast to still be around 5 to 10 degrees above average Saturday through Monday. Model ensembles show a fair amount of uncertainty but consensus is for temperatures to climb again by Tuesday. Max temperatures approach 15 degrees above climo and areas of major heat risk develop across the San Joaquin Valley. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ300>317-319-321-332-337>339. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford