Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
437 FXUS66 KHNX 120857 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 212 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated strong thunderstorms have a 10 to 20 percent chance of occurrence this afternoon and early evening along the Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP. 2. Temperatures will trend warmer to around 10 to 15 degrees above climatological averages today and Wednesday. 3. A Heat Advisory is in effect for today through Wednesday, with probabilities of afternoon highs exceeding 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley around 65-90%. The probability of exceeding 105 degrees is generally less than 20% with the exception of Fresno and Visalia being about 30%. 4. The warm temperatures will allow increased snowmelt to continue over the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. 5. A gradual lowering of temperatures is in store later this week, and a more noticeable cooling trend arrives by this weekend when highs fall closer to climatological averages. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure is strengthening over the region today with 24 hour temperature trends running around 6 to 9 degrees warmer. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada foothills, West Side Mountains, and the Kern River Valley today through Wednesday. Much of the lower elevations will climb into the triple digits with high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above climatological averages. There is widespread moderate heat risk with areas of high heat risk. Here are probabilities for a high temperature of 102 degrees or higher for some of the larger population areas in the San Joaquin Valley. Tue Wed Merced 51% 31% Madera 46% 36% Fresno 71% 66% Reedley 36% 51% Lemoore 61% 46% Hanford 61% 51% Visalia 71% 66% Porterville 61% 46% Delano 61% 36% Bakersfield 61% 56% Satellite loops show sunny skies are prevailing across the central California interior early this afternoon. There are some cumulus developing over the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP with a slight chance for isolated strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition to dangerous lightning strikes, storms could produce brief heavy rainfall and small hail. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out along the Sierra Nevada crest Wednesday and Thursday as well. The ridge breaks down on Thursday as the upper low moves inland over southern California. A Gulf of Alaska low moves across the Pacific Northwest this weekend with troughing over the western CONUS. Temperatures lower to around 4 to 8 degrees above average Thursday and Friday and then fall to near average this weekend and early next week. Winds will be on the increase later in the week after the ridge breaks down. Strong wind gusts are expected across the Mojave Desert slopes Friday through the weekend with breezy conditions elsewhere. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 6 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ300>317-319-332. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford