Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
717 FXUS63 KICT 190554 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1254 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon- evening, a few strong storms are possible - Severe storms likely on Sunday afternoon and evening for central and south central Kansas - More severe storms look to impact the region again on Tuesday mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike - Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday-Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 A frontal boundary will stall out over southern Kansas this afternoon and a few storms could develop as there will be some weak convergence present along the boundary. The flow aloft is rather weak so expecting storm structure to be less organized and a few strong storms will be possible. Meanwhile, a easterly low-level moist upslope regime north of the front will likely spark off convection over eastern Colorado later this afternoon. This activity should grow and expand into a slower forward propagating MCS as low level jet/moisture transport increases over western Kansas this evening and overnight. The complex of storms will mainly affect northern Kansas/central Nebraska for late tonight into Sunday morning. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with a few strong storms possible. This could also push an outflow boundary southward into south central Kansas which will likely mix back northward during the day on Sunday. The focus will then shift to Sunday afternoon/evening as current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave moving eastward from the Pacific Ocean into southern California. This upper level system will race eastward across the Rockies tonight and eject into Nebraska/Kansas during the afternoon on Sunday. Mid-level temperatures will be rather warm and look to prohibit storm development until this upper wave approaches the dry-line by mid- late afternoon. Once storms develop they will quickly become severe given high instability/wind shear combination. The storms should initially start out as discrete supercells with 0-6km shear vector orientation more perpendicular to dry-line. The environment looks more mixed out with higher LCLs so very large hail and destructive winds up to 80mph will be main threats given higher DCAPE. There is some tornado potential and a risk window area would be mainly over south central Kansas just west and near I-35 in the evening as low-level jet increases(boosting 0-3km SRH) and LCLs could become a little lower in the deeper moisture. The storms look to congeal into a line of storms with cold pool interference with damaging to destructive winds becoming the main hazard as the evening goes on. Heading into Monday the warmer capping 700mb temperatures looks more formidable and with no upper wave to aid in upper forcing if any storms go along the dry line they would be isolated and could become severe. Tuesday we will have a better chance for severe storms to affect the region again as models show another upper level wave interacting with the dry line, and an associated cold front pushing southeast into a highly unstable and sheared environment. Looks like a quiet weather day will be in store for Wednesday as surface high pressure builds over the region in the wake of Tuesday`s frontal passage. However that looks to be short-lived with ensemble models showing mainly west/southwest flow aloft returning for Thursday and Friday which could lead to more rounds of storms over the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 A busy TAF period is ahead, especially Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. VFR conditions are expected to prevail from now through about 21Z Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms across western Kansas are expected to continue moving northeast, and they could potentially affect area along and north of the I-70 corridor. However, chances for impacts remain low at this time, so this has been omitted from the TAFs. If anything changes within the next few hours, short term amendments may be needed for KRSL and KSLN prior to the 12Z TAF issuance. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by 21Z on Sunday and quickly progress eastward during the evening and nighttime hours. Large hail up to golf balls, winds up to 75 mph are expected with any storms that develop, especially between 21Z and 03Z. Storms are expected to weaken as they move east of the Flint Hills, but gusty winds and small hail will continue to be possible between 03Z-06Z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...JC