Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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704 FXUS63 KICT 251934 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 234 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight - Drying out Sunday and into Monday - Next chance for showers and thunderstorm will be mid to late next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 This afternoon and evening forecast is heavily dependent on when quality moisture (Tds >65F) arrives in the region and when the cap breaks. Currently, the moisture is to the south in Eastern OK and into Arkansas. This moisture is currently moving further west into OK as of late morning and is expected to move north into Kansas. This is expected to continue through afternoon today and will serving to help destabilize the atmosphere in CWA. How fast this moisture advection occurs this afternoon is still in question and creates a significant amount of uncertainty for the possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon. To add to this uncertainty, most of the BUFKIT soundings show a decent cap in place over much of South Central and Southeast Kansas this afternoon through sunset. By sunset, the dryline is expected to encroach on the CWA from the west and provide the needed push to kick off the thunderstorm activity. Due to the late arrival of the quality moisture, this dry line will be rather diffuse so the initiation point/location of this thunderstorm activity is difficult to identify. Given this uncertainty and the presence of a decent cap over much of the CWA, it is looking like thunderstorm activity will not start until closer to sunset rather than this afternoon. That said, if an updraft is able to break through, the mid level cap this afternoon, it will grow up scale quickly as the mid and upper level dynamics are very supportive of severe thunderstorms. This will make this a low chance but high impact possibility for this afternoon. As sunset approaches, this will change dramatically with a much higher likelyhood of severe thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west of the CWA and enter the CWA around sunset. By this time, the moisture will be in place and will create conducive environment for severe thunderstorm activity. Large, damaging hail, damaging winds and with a few strong tornadoes are possible during the evening. This activity will move across the CWA with this thunderstorm activity likely coming together into a more linear or squall line mode as it moves into the I-135 corridor. Once this occurs, high winds (65+ mph) are expected but large hail and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. This thunderstorm activity is expected to push through the CWA during the overnight with Southeast Kansas likely to see some residual thunderstorm activity Sunday morning but this will be pushing out of the region. Sunday the main area of showers and thunderstorms will push to the east and north. This activity may linger in these areas for much of the afternoon but do not expect severe weather to linger and is expected to push off to the east. Monday high pressure will dominate and keep the shower and thunderstorm activity out of the forecast. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this time and through the end of the week. Rain chances increase by mid week and into end of the week. At this time, the best chance for rain look to be toward the end of the week with smaller chances on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the first six or so hours of the TAF period. From 23Z to 04Z tonight, thunderstorm chances ramp up significantly. Confidence on location and timing is rather low (~30%) so left the thunderstorm activity out of the TAF for this cycle until thunderstorms actually "show themselves". Given this uncertainty, if thunderstorms do occur, there is a good chance for hail (>1") and winds in excess of 60Kts. The greatest chance for this activity will be in South Central Kansas, affecting KHUT and KICT and to a lesser extent, KGBD and KSLN. The risk of thunderstorm activity will continue through 08Z. By this time, the thunderstorm activity will be in the KCNU area and will slowly push out of the region. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ELM