Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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370 FXUS63 KICT 050539 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms likely this evening with severe storms possible. Hail and wind will be main threats. - Dry conditions move-in for Wednesday through the daytime hours Friday. - Storm chances will increase for the Friday night through at least the Sunday night time frame. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Complicated setup currently ongoing across the area with CAMS really struggling with ongoing convection. Storms are ongoing across north central and northeast KS just ahead of a mid level trough and at the surface, cold front extends from central Nebraska into Central KS and finally into Western OK. However, hard to tell which is the synoptic front and which is outflow from ongoing storms. The main question for this evening and overnight will be if and how many storms develop along the front/outflow as it pushes southeast. Current thinking is that storms currently over north central KS will maintain as they track east into an airmass that remains unstable and just ahead of the mid level trough/baroclinic zone. Also possible they may become more surfaced based as they track east. Confidence in storm development decreases further south along the front as much of south central KS remains socked-in with low clouds which may limit instability some. Things working in favor of storm development would be a fairly pronounced mid/upper trough providing plenty of background lift along with some decent convergence along the front. Going with the thinking that storms will try and develop generally in the 22-01z time frame over south central KS/Flint Hills with possibly better coverage over northern OK where better instability and convergence will be located. Any storms that develop over south central KS into the Flint Hills will dive southeast overnight into very good instability with the main threat turning into damaging winds. So by 06z, any storms that are ongoing would likely be affecting only far south central and southeast KS before quickly moving off into OK. Behind this upper impulse we will quickly transition to northwest flow aloft with dry conditions expected for both Wed and Thu. A weak cold front is forecast to slide down Wed evening but not expecting anything to develop along it as better upper forcing will be to the northeast. There is good model agreement in the upper flow become slightly more zonal for Fri into Fri night which will setup some good mid level moisture transport and theta-e advection which should allow for some elevated convection Fri evening through the overnight hours. The better storm chances look to be over central and especially eastern KS where moisture transport will be maximized. Will remain active for both Sat and Sun with west/northwest flow remaining in place along with an east-west boundary through KS. So it appears we are looking for multiple rounds of MCS activity with evening and overnight hours having the higher storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs across the region as surface high pressure builds over the area in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Winds will gradually switch from the north to the southwest as the surface high pressure slides eastward during the day on Wednesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...CDJ