Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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746 FXUS63 KICT 220815 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 315 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A narrow swath of showers/storms central and north-central Kansas early this morning, with a few hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible far southeast Kansas today through tonight. - Thunderstorm potential and associated severe weather chances Thursday through Thursday night, and again Saturday afternoon through night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 EARLY THIS MORNING...A strong mid-level baroclinic zone ahead of potent shortwave energy approaching from the west will support a narrow band of showers/thunderstorms progressing east across portions of central and north-central Kansas early this morning, mainly north of a line extending from Great Bend to Salina. A narrow swath of around one-quarter inch of rainfall is probable. This precipitation should exit eastward into northeast Kansas by 7-9 AM. TODAY-TONIGHT...Otherwise, a stalling frontal zone will support off- and-on areas of showers/thunderstorms today through tonight across portions of Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and Arkansas, with some of this activity possibly impacting extreme southeast Kansas. A modest combination of elevated instability and effective deep layer shear may support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity over far southeast Kansas through tonight. However, better chances will likely remain further south. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...Increasing deep warm advection and strong moisture transport from the south-southwest amidst shortwave energy approaching from the west could support increasing shower/thunderstorm chances across the region Thursday. There`s quite a bit of model spread, so uncertainty is low on the coverage of storms. If storms can develop, thinking at least initially activity would be "elevated" rooted above the boundary layer, with the strongest activity posing a risk of isolated large hail given the instability/shear combination. However, storms could become more surface-based through the afternoon and into the evening with afternoon heating, although strong moisture advection and the potential for lingering low clouds may tend to stunt heating. If storms can become more surface-based, the risk for damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes could materialize later in the day. The isolated tornado threat would be focused during the evening coincident with an increasing low-level jet. For Thursday night...a complex or two of thunderstorms may impact the region, as a strong cold intersects a dryline and approaches from the west-northwest. Given the potential for more linear storm mode, the primary concern with this activity would be damaging winds. All-in-all, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty Thursday-Thursday night, so stay tuned. SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a more synoptically evident severe weather episode could take shape somewhere across the Central and Southern Plains, as approaching shortwave energy sharpens a dryline across the High Plains, amidst increasing moisture/instability. Model consensus returns moisture all day Saturday, with dewpoints early morning only in the low 50s. Consequently, much of the day may consist of low clouds, limiting heating and associated surface-based instability. All-in-all, uncertainty remains in the forecast. Stay tuned, as the combination of long hodographs and potentially strong instability could pose at least an isolated threat for higher-end severe weather if all ingredients come together. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A pattern change is expected across the region through at least mid next week, with dry northwest flow aloft. This should support mostly dry weather, with lower dewpoints and seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Scattered showers/isolated storms will move across central Kansas through about 09-10z, though minimal impact to cigs and vsbys expected. Another area of showers and storms will be possible toward dawn through the morning across southeast Kansas, though confidence on coverage is low enough to limit mention to VCSH for now at KCNU. Light northerly component winds through early afternoon before veering more from the southeast by late afternoon and evening. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...KED