909
FXUS62 KILM 090543
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through early today. A cold
front will cross the coastal Carolinas tonight into Monday.
High pressure will dominate the weather Tuesday through Friday,
though most days will still carry the usual afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances. A cold front will move into the region
late Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track for another quiet weather night, but did add
some fog to the forecast, closer to the coast where dewpoints
are closer to 70.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Quiet weather is expected through much of the near term period
though Sunday afternoon should some increase in clouds and a small
chance for showers and storms as a cold front approaches from the
NW. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to around 70 with highs
Sunday in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves through the area Sunday night, with lobes of vorticity
aloft breaking off from the main upper low way up in Maine. This
brings enough forcing and better confidence for showers and thunderstorms
in the earlier portion of the overnight hours prior to 06Z. Lows
in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s at the coast.

Cold front moves offshore by Monday morning, and stalls out from there.
This keeps in a slight chance of showers and storms along the coast,
but the inland areas should be drying out. Cooler air sets in behind
the front, with highs only reaching the mid-to- upper 80s.

By Monday night, a deeper trough axis begins its approach through
the Carolinas, which increases the upper forcing again. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase again, though modestly. Better chances
are at the coast where the stalled front offshore is closer. Lows
in the low-to-mid 60s inland, upper 60s to near 70 at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The deeper trough continues to swing through the Carolinas and push
offshore by late Tuesday. This will help push the stalled offshore
front further south and east into Florida and the western Atlantic,
while surface high pressure to the north settles in. This dries things
out a bit Tuesday and Wednesday, but a slight chance of convection
still remains, primarily from the seabreeze.

Southwesterly flow gets a bit deeper by Thursday, as a broad upper
low moves into the Gulf. This actually helps to push that old frontal
boundary northward, back to near northeast SC. This increases the
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly across the
SC Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions. This will feel quite muggy and
summery.

Highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the 60s become
the lower 70s as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the period. Sub-VFR may
occur with fog, mainly at coastal terminals through daybreak and
restrictions possible again this evening as shwrs/tstms move
across the area from west to east as a front drops down from the
north. Light SW winds will pick up through today and become
gusty, mainly coastal terminals this afternoon. Winds will
become more W-NW into this evening.

Extended Outlook...Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered
showers and storms Sunday night through about midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Light and variable winds will become S to SW
at 5 to 10 KT overnight before increasing to 10 to 15 KT Sunday.
Seas will run about 2 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southwesterly winds immediately
ahead of a cold front start veering northwesterly and then
northeasterly by Monday morning as the front moves through. Gusts up
to 20-22kts expected, but that decreases considerably after the
front moves through. Variable winds at 5-10kts likely Monday
afternoon through Tuesday night, before finally settling on SSE by
Wednesday and Thursday. Seas 2-3ft initially, but decrease slightly
to around 2ft after the front and remain that way through the
extended period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...IGB/31