211
FXUS63 KILX 061723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A small (15-30% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this
   weekend as MCS activity passes to our south Saturday afternoon
   into Sunday morning.

-  Below normal temperatures will prevail through most of the
   forecast period. High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s
   through next Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for
   late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Abundant sunshine prevails across central Illinois this morning,
with 15z/10am temperatures already in the middle to upper 70s. 12z
KILX upper air sounding suggests the well-mixed boundary layer
will deepen to 8000-8500ft today. Mixing dry adiabatically from
this level results in high temperatures mainly topping out in the
lower 80s...with a few middle 80s south of I-70. As a result, have
raised highs by about 2-3 degrees from the previous forecast. Will
need to keep an eye on the winds as well, because speeds at the
top of the mixed layer are not quite as strong as the NAM had
forecast. Have maintained 25-30mph gusts for now, but these may
not be achieved except across the far N/NW CWA this afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

There is a secondary cold front entering central Illinois this
morning. This will help dry us out the rest of the way, dropping dew
points into the upper 40s to low 50s during the day. Behind the
front, the pressure gradient has tightened and will deliver some
breezier gradient winds to the CWA. The 00z HREF shows a 40-60%
chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph this evening after 5pm.

Starting Friday, the synoptic pattern has an unseasonably deep upper-
low anchored over Ontario and the Great Lakes and a strong high over
the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains taking a stronghold
over central Illinois. Central Illinois will remain sandwiched
between these two features embedded within deep-layer northwesterly
flow. The forecast will remain mostly dry, but some MCS activity
this weekend to our south/southwest could bring some rain up our
way. There is a slight chance (15-30%) that the precipitation could
be as far north as a Lincoln to Champaign line Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning.

The temperatures will continue to be slightly below normal through
the extended forecast. High temperatures stay in the mid to upper
70s through next Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s to
near 90 for late next week. Overnight lows will dip down into the
50s through Tuesday night, warming back into the 60s for late week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Other than a period of FEW-SCT diurnal Cu early this afternoon,
skies will remain clear. NW winds will gust to around 25kt this
afternoon...with the gusts subsiding by around 23z. Winds will
drop below 10kt across the board by mid-evening, but will once
again ramp up after sunrise Friday due to deep-layer mixing.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support NW gusts of
20-25kt after 15z Fri.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$