Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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892 FXUS64 KJAN 230223 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 923 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Cluster of thunderstorms are occuring across the Delta this evening, with some flash flooding occuring. High res models suggest that these storms will inch eastward through the evening into the overnight hours before dissipating very early on Thursday. A strong to possibly severe storm will continue to be possible over the next few hours, but the main concern will be flash flooding. The main area of concern for flash flooding will continue to be generally northwest of the Natchez Trace Corridor. Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 60s./15/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Through Tonight: Clusters of thunderstorms have begun to form along a stationary front from Texas to Arkansas. A complex is expected to develop from this activity and continue to move east, progged to impact our area later this evening. Rich low level moisture is evident across the ArkLaTex region and into northern Louisiana. Deep shear around 40 to 50 kts is ample for organization and will aid in the upscale growth of the MCS. A sharp instability gradient is noted on RAP analysis from roughly Monroe LA, to New Orleans LA, and will likely serve as a focused track for the MCS later today with waning daytime heating. A slight/marginal risk has been highlighted for western portions of the area, roughly along and west of the Natchez Trace corridor. Primary threat will be for damaging winds, but hail quarter to golf ball size and tornadoes are also possible. In addition, the orientation of the boundary and storm motions could lead to some potentially greater rainfall totals. There is potential for a 3 inch bullseye to sneak into far western portions of the area, notably Morehouse/Richland/Franklin Parishes. Given this potential, have added a Limited threat area for flash flooding into the morning tomorrow. Further east, drier air will greatly limit severe potential, as the greater ingredients will remain further south and west. As the MCS moves away from this source region it should decay. A few lingering showers and storms from this complex will be possible tonight east of the risk area, but are not expected to post a threat. The MCS should dissipate by daybreak and could have implications on the set up for tomorrow`s system./SAS/ Thursday through Wednesday: There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms again on Thursday, with a similar synoptic setup in place. A Slight Risk area closer to the front (northwest of our CWA) remains in place, but better flow through the atmosphere and an uptick in instability suggest the threat for severe storms will expand into our area heading into tomorrow as well. Realistically, the chance for strong to severe storms resulting from daytime and evening convection will extend through the weekend. Above-normal heights associated with the upper-level ridge will retreat southward over the Gulf of Mexico as broad longwave troughing dominates the western and central CONUS. Disturbances rippling out of this wave across the country will provide the support for this mainly diurnal activity to organize and progress eastward each day. Any particular afternoon, areas around the US Highway 82 corridor have the greatest chances for storms through this time, though I wouldn`t rule out the chance anywhere. A southern jet stream over the region should add the flow needed for possible organized wind threat with any deep convection. Then as we move from Monday into Tuesday, a cold front should sweep southeast through the region. This front will also carry a threat for strong to severe storms, but it`s too far out to have confidence on the timing right now. Before the front arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be HOT. The possibility of 105-110 heat index values will put residents under the threat of dangerous heat stress. Will likely need graphics if it appears that widespread rain will hold off those days. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Showers and storm are moving across the delta this evening and this will bring intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions to GLH/GWO. Expect the remaining sites to remain VFR through the period, although JAN/HKS could see some brief MVFR conditions if the showers make it further to the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 90 72 91 / 30 20 10 0 Meridian 68 90 69 92 / 10 20 10 10 Vicksburg 70 90 71 92 / 50 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 68 91 71 93 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 70 90 71 92 / 40 10 10 0 Greenville 70 86 72 90 / 70 40 40 10 Greenwood 69 87 71 91 / 60 40 40 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /