388
FXUS64 KJAN 051137 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
637 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Through tonight: We`re rolling into yet another day of the same
weather pattern with a forecast heavily contingent on the
evolution of mesoscale features. For now, all is quiet in the wake
of yesterday afternoon and early evening`s MCS, with very patchy
transient low clouds early this morning. The next feature of
interest is an MCS pushing through the ArkLaTex. Convection along
the leading edge of this feature has become less vigorous over the
past couple of hours, but for the time being it is still
sustaining a push of quite strong wind with radar velocity
sampling 50-65 kt. Contrary to previous MCSs, this one has a much
greater southward component, likely riding along a corridor of
greater instability that extends from east TX into southwest LA.
As northern portions of this MCS cross over into a more stable
environment and given the lack of deeper convection to maintain
the cold pool, current thinking is these storms will weaken
significantly as they approach our area later this morning, with
healthier convection surviving a more southward path toward the
Gulf. However, remnant outflows and perhaps an MCV from this
system will likely drift eastward into our area later today and
with daytime heating and airmass recovery, may serve as forcing
for new development of convection through the afternoon into the
early evening.

Today`s lower probability but higher ceiling scenario is the cold
pool from this morning`s MCS is stronger than anticipated and either
maintains its current strength or weakens some then reorganizes
later today (similar to yesterday`s system) and moves into parts
of northeast LA and west/south MS. Again, similar to recent days,
damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. A marginal severe
risk is being highlighted in the areas that could be impacted by
this conditional threat. /DL/

Thursday through mid next week...

Storm chances will likely continue into Thursday as a cold front
pushes south. Storms will continue to be possible along and south
of the front where moisture remains abundant, but generally weaker
flow than previous systems will limit organization and thus limit
magnitude of severity. Can`t rule out isolated storms across
southwestern areas Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls
out in the vicinity of the HWY 84 corridor. Opted to add low end
PoPs in this area to account for this. Lack of airmass change to
the south will keep storm chances in the forecast.

Surface high pressure settles in for much of the area Saturday
and drier air will shift focus further south and west, thus
limiting the chance for storms. As this high pressure shifts east
Sunday, moisture recovers. A shortwave pushes across the midsouth,
increasing rain and storm chances. Increased flow could aid in
organization, but confidence on overall evolution is low as
mesoscale features could play a role.

Early to mid next week a seasonally anomalous trough digs south
across the eastern CONUS. A stalled boundary could shift while
several waves push across the area. Areas to the south of this
boundary, mainly south of I-20, will keep rain and storm chances
at any given time, so activity should continue into next week.
That said, organization appears less likely than seen previously
and should keep severe chances isolated. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A patchy MVFR/IFR stratus deck exists across the area this
morning. Through the day, scattered to numerous SHRA and TS are
expected to increase, with the greatest coverage along and south
of I-20. Brief categorical reductions are possible in storms, and
wind gusts to 50 kt cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the stratus
deck is expected to diminish by mid to late morning, with VFR
conditions prevailing outside of the storms. Redevelopment of
patchy low clouds is anticipated late tonight through Thursday
morning. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  70  88  69 /  60  60  20   0
Meridian      90  69  90  68 /  60  70  40   0
Vicksburg     87  70  90  70 /  60  40  10   0
Hattiesburg   92  73  90  71 /  60  50  60   0
Natchez       88  70  89  69 /  60  50  20   0
Greenville    84  71  91  70 /  60  20   0   0
Greenwood     84  70  90  68 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SAS