006
FXUS64 KJAN 050238 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
938 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The severe weather threat and flash flood threat has ended for the
night. Local radars still showed a few storms along the
Mississippi/Alabama border that will shift east into Alabama
before midnight. Regional satellite imagery and radar showed some
vigorous convection over Oklahoma and southeast Kansas that will
continue to approach our CWA from the northwest. Model consensus
is that this activity may congeal into another mcs but not affect
our CWA until after sunrise Wednesday so pops have been largely
removed the remainder of the night. Temperatures have been rain
cooled across our south and east. Morning lows have been lowered
allowing only a slight recovery before sunrise. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday...

Cold pool has drifted far across the area, with majority of the
focus of moist southerly flow & destabilization along & ahead of the
boundary for southwestern areas. There has been a uptick in
convective organization as the storms move in across the MS River
corridor & should continue to mature as they propagate eastward.
There is a core of storms moving across south-central LA that have a
deep cold pool & should tap into the stout environment mainly south
of the I-20 corridor. With 340-350K 925-850mb Theta E reservoir over
the Gulf Coast region & nosing into the Hwy 84 corridor, this
environment should be able to support more maturing of this
convective complex. There is some expectation of an eventual more
north-south orientation of a line progged to swing eastward along
the Hwy 84 corridor. As mentioned before, steep mid- level lapse
rates of 6-8 deg C, 30-35kts mean bulk shear & ongoing 2-4k J/kg
ML/MUCAPE south & south of the I-20 corridor should focus the
potential for severe storms. Adjusted the severe graphic to focus
mainly south of I-20 with the "Slight" risk area. Main threats
remains to be damaging winds of 60-70mph & some hail. With recent
rains & expected potential for an additional 2-3 inches, with
locally higher amounts possible, some localized flash flooding
potential remain possible, but especially across the southern half
of the "Limited" zone along & south of I-20 & west of I-55. Lastly,
there has been some potential for a somewhat weak but earlier
evident wake low in the back sharp edge of this precip.

Expect these storms to move out of the region into the early evening
hours, possibly as early as 8-10PM but left the going end timing as
is for now. Strong deep layer flow is progged to swing over the top
of the southwestern ridge tonight & into Wednesday, leading to a
frontal zone & southern shortwave ascent again Wednesday morning
through the aftn hours. Mesoscale details will be key, convective
allowing models indicate another MCS diving down out of the Ozarks,
moving into the northwest ArkLaMiss Delta around daybreak &
potentially reinvigorating after daybreak into the aftn hours on
Wednesday. With mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 deg C, 29-31C
vertical totals & 25-35kts mean bulk shear in the 0-3km/0-6km
layers, isolated severe storms are possible, especially where the
highest Theta E reservoir resides across the southwestern areas
along & south of I-20 & into the Hwy 84 corridor. Lows will be
seasonably warm in the low-mid 70s, while near to slightly
seasonably warm southeast of the Natchez Trace in the low 90s while
near seasonable values in the mid-upper 80s to the northwest. /DC/

Wednesday through Tuesday: Continuing into Wednesday another round
of potentially severe storms will be possible across much of the
southwestern portions of the CWA at least, and the main threat will
be damaging wind gusts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
for the rest of the area.

Weak high pressure expanding into the southern plains and high
pressure over the southeastern US will leave our area sandwiched
between the two leading to moisture steadily feeding into the area.
We can expect PWs to near the 2 inch range with northwesterly winds
aloft in the 25-35kt range will lead to the probable lines of
convection moving into the area by daybreak Wednesday. Expect this
activity to be mainly confined to before daybreak and again going
into the afternoon as daytime heating may lead to redevelopment some
of which may be strong to severe.

Otherwise the long term period will be dominated by continuous
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms almost everyday of
the period with possible low end chances for marginally severe
storms. This activity will be mainly in the southwest where the most
favorable storm environment will be but we will continue to keep
messaging day to day. By Friday going into Saturday a cold front
will push southeast into our area limiting storm coverage and
intensity in the area as drier air filters into the area. Sunday
rain chances will continue into Monday with a weak shortwave primed
to drop into the area by mid afternoon bring a return to rain and
storm chances. Tuesday, troughing across the rockies will begin to
shift eastward continuing rain chances into midweek./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A band of TSRA wl affect MEI-PIB-HBG through 02Z before shifting
east into AL. The -RA and VCTS GWO-HKS-JAN wl continue to taper
off through 02Z. Away from TSRA activity VFR conditions wl
continue to prevail through 08Z. After 08Z MVFR/IFR cigs are
expected to develop and prevail through 16Z before improving to
VFR. Another complex of TSRA wl be psbl Wed aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  89  71  89 /  10  60  50  30
Meridian      71  91  70  90 /  40  50  60  40
Vicksburg     69  87  71  90 /  10  60  40  20
Hattiesburg   71  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  50
Natchez       66  89  70  89 /  10  50  40  30
Greenville    70  86  71  91 /  10  60  30  10
Greenwood     69  86  70  90 /  10  70  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP/22