983
FXUS64 KJAN 061738
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today and tonight:

Low pressure will begin to shift east as a cold front pushes south
across the area today. Rain and storms will remain possible along
and ahead of the front where moisture remains abundant, mainly
the southeastern half of the area. Storms will gradually shift
southeastward as the cold front continues to sag. Storms taper off
tonight as a drier, post frontal airmass takes hold, with quiet
conditions likely to persist over the next couple days./SAS

Friday through Wednesday:

A stronger than normal ridge of high pressure aloft will migrate
from the Southern High Plains to over the Gulf Coast Friday into
this weekend - shifting the focus for above normal temperatures
towards our area especially for Sunday. As such, precip is not
expected Friday or Saturday, but a "cold front" nudged southward
into our forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening time frame is likely
to trigger some amount of convection as it moves southward. At this
time it appears that anticipated peak heat index values ahead of
this front could be in the 100-105 degree range. If afternoon dew
points hang on in the lower 70s before the front`s arrival without
too much mixing, the heat threat could be enough to warrant a Heat
Advisory for a part of the area. Regardless, it will be a hot day
with potentially unstable air south of the arriving front. It`s
conceivable that storms developing north of our area could make a
run southward through the afternoon and evening hours, so have
nudged the Slight Chance POPs a little farther south compared to NBM
guidance on Sunday and boosted POPs some into Sunday night. Some
chance for rain will linger around the Coastal regions through the
middle of the week as an uncertain evolves with a few shortwaves
rippling over the South. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few showers
and storms may be possible across the southeastern portion of the
forecast area...otherwise no rainfall is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  70  89  63 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      89  70  91  62 /  30  10   0   0
Vicksburg     89  70  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   90  71  94  66 /  70  10   0   0
Natchez       88  69  91  66 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    91  72  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     90  70  89  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

MJH/MJH