Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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370 FXUS64 KJAN 011808 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The forecast remains on track and no significant adjustments were made. Radars are showing a few showers/thunderstorms in eastern MS due to a shortwave trough moving through the area. As the trough and associated storms move east, we are seeing drier air move in behind it over much of the Delta region into central MS with precipitable water dropping below 1.5 inches. So for the remainder of the day, the greater chance for additional storms would be over far eastern MS and southern portions of the forecast area, and given the steep lapse rates still in place, we will keep the marginal risk for severe weather going in these areas. We may adjust the risk area in the severe graphic farther south and east based on the current trends. Heavy rainfall potential has also shifted more to the east and south for similar reasons, and the limited flash flood threat will be adjusted accordingly in the graphic. Otherwise, despite showers/storm potential, afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s. /SW/EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today and Tonight... The threat for severe weather and the potential for flash flooding will continue today. Early morning global guidance continue to show the sfc low tracking northeast towards the Ohio Valley as the sfc high continues to push east across the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, on the southern peripheral of this sfc low, a shortwave trough axis will dig into central MS bringing along the most vigorous convection this morning. Later in the late afternoon/evening, the trough axis will start to push to the east and a couple of models hint at a possible complex developing across our southwest around this timeframe. With this in mind, the combination of daytime heating, our warm moist airmass, and a subtle shortwave will help maintain a threat for isolated severe storms across central MS through this afternoon. The highlighted Marginal Risk for today was trimmed slightly to exclude portions of the Delta. Primary risk with these storms will be damaging wind gusts. Some small hail cannot be ruled out. In addition to the severe potential, total rainfall amounts between 2-4 inches of rain will be possible across our forecast area, with locally higher amounts possible. Some areas in the west have observed the heaviest rain earlier. Drier air, less than an inch and a half PWs, will limit some coverage across the extreme northwest Delta, so some trimming was done to the western side of the flood graphic for today, to remove areas along and west of Natchez Trace. Later in the evening, storm chances will start to diminish across the forecast area as trough axis pushes further east out of our CWA taking more of the intense precipitation with it, while nighttime temperatures fall into the upper 60s across the area. /CR/ Late weekend through next week (Sunday-Friday)... Late weekend-midweek (Sunday-Wednesday): Active convective pattern will continue & persist through midweek. Quasi zonal pattern will continue across majority of areas west of the MS River corridor, with the Gulf Coast region on the western periphery of departing trough axis over the OH Valley to FL Peninsula. This will keep west- northwesterly flow aloft & perturbed deep flow rounding shortwave ridging off to the southwest. With continued moist ascent & PWs near or in excess of an inch & a half, there will be continued rain & storm chances Sunday. With mean deep bulk shear only to around 20- 25kts, not expecting much in the way of organized severe potential but vertical totals in the 25-27 deg range & 6-7 deg C lapse rates could support some strong to isolated severe storms at most. This perturbed & wet pattern will persist through mid week. As ridging amplifies over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, expect rain & storm chances to migrate northeastward each day, with more isolated chances further southwest. Due to continued lapse rates & increased vertical totals in the 27-29 degree range, especially across western half of the area, some isolated severe storms cna`t be ruled out each day. Temperatures will become seasonably warm, with highs in the upper 80s on Sunday to low 90s by midweek, with some increased heat stress/heat indices into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Lows will be seasonably warm in the upper 60s east of I-55 to low- mid 70s along & northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. Late week (Thursday-Friday): Ridging is progged to amplify over the Four Corners to West TX by late week, with more significant northwesterly flow moving across the Mid West to as far as the Mid South to northern portions of the Gulf Coast region. This is in response to a significant cold core low/frontal system diving across southern Canada to Hudson Bay area. This will drag an organized frontal system down across the CONUS into the Gulf Coast region by late week. Expect more scattered rain & storm chances, with a little stronger deep flow around the area. Additional isolated strong- severe storms are possible, with low end CSU probs hitting on that potential. No areas are outlooked in the HWO for this week. With frontal system progged to move into the area, temperatures will become more seasonable in the upper 80s to low 90s & lows in the mid- upper 60s by late week into next weekend. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR flight conditions for majority of TAF sites with the following exceptions: MEI/GWO/HKS are under MVFR flight conditions and GTR is under IFR flight conditions to start the TAF period. Showers/thunderstorms have decreased throughout the morning, however redevelopment may be possible this afternoon and evening in eastern MS and southern TAF sites as instability and a moist airmass remains over the region. Shower/thunderstorm potential and cloud cover will remain over the area into Sunday, resulting in lower ceilings and VFR/MVFR flight conditions for Sunday morning. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 87 70 89 / 10 30 10 30 Meridian 67 87 68 90 / 20 30 10 30 Vicksburg 68 88 71 90 / 20 30 10 30 Hattiesburg 70 87 70 90 / 20 50 10 30 Natchez 68 87 71 88 / 20 40 0 30 Greenville 70 89 73 88 / 10 20 10 30 Greenwood 69 89 71 89 / 20 20 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/DC/SW