938
FXUS63 KJKL 090844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next passing cold front will bring increasing rain chances
  to eastern Kentucky early this morning and through the day.

- Cooler air will be reinforced across the region early this
  week, before temperatures modify back to above normal by the end
  of the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2024

No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update
along with tweaking PoPs on account of the current CAMs guidance.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1055 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

The forecast is on track so no significant changes are needed with
the late evening update. Did blend in the latest hourly
observations into the grids with the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 726 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

There are no changes to the forecast. Radar shows precipitation
falling out of mid-level clouds but no stations are measuring
precipitation. Will keep low-end PoPs in the forecast to account
for the possibility of sprinkles or light showers through the
evening. With no changes to the forecast, will forego issuing a
new zone forecast product until the late evening period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Late this afternoon, an enlongated upper level trough extended
from the vicinity of Maine across Quebec to Ontario. One upper
level low was moving within this general area of troughing and
centered in the Maine vicinity with another upper level low
centered in Ontario northeast of Lake Superior. To the south an
upper level ridge was centered over the Lower MS Valley vicinity
and extended west into the Southern Plains and across portions of
the Southeast. One disturbance in the west to northwest flow aloft
from the Plains and Central Conus into the eastern Conus and OH
Valley region was moving across the Commonwealth at this time with
some light showers and sprinkles associated with it. Meanwhile,
another shortwave extended from the upper level low into the
western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley vicinity south toward the mid
MS Valley area. At the sfc, high pressure was centered across the
southeastern Conus/Southern Appalachian region while a sfc low
was moving across the Lower MI Area with the associated frontal
zone southwest to near the KS/OK border and then northwest near
the front range area of WY and CO.

Tonight and Sunday, the initial shortwave will pass east though
the evening while the upper low in Ontario moves toward Quebec and
sends a couple of shortwave troughs across the Great Lakes and
into parts of the Northeast to OH Valley. At the same time, the
sfc low currently in the MI vicinity should track to the Northeast
U.S coast and the off the eastern seaboard while the the trailing
front sags into the OH Valley to Southern Plains. This boundary
should continue sagging south across eastern KY on Monday and then
south of the area on Sunday night. High pressure should nose into
eastern KY for Sunday night while a secondary front to the north
becomes diffuse near the OH Valley in advance of stronger high
pressure building into the Upper MS Valley.

Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible through early
this evening, though this may not amount to more than sprinkles as
upstream there have been no measurable rainfall reports over
central KY. A lull in between systems is expected overnight though
clouds should continue to stream into the area on west to
northwest flow as the next couple of shortwaves approach along
with the cold front. Convection upstream may track into portions
of the OH and TN Valley overnight or additional development may
occur as moisture is gradually advected toward eastern KY. A
gradient in PW is anticipated near or west of I 75 into south
central KY/the Lake Cumberland region late tonight and would be
the most favored area for convection late tonight. Additional
convection is anticipated on Sunday ahead of the front and as the
shortwaves cross the Commonwealth. The deepest moisture will be
in the south, generally from the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY 80 corridor
south. This area will have the best chance for showers and some
storms on Sunday though PW from about the Mountain Parkway south
should be at least 1 inch or more into early afternoon and
activity north to the area should be more scattered in nature and
then more isolated further north.

The cloud cover should keep temperatures more uniform compared to
the past couple of nights tonight, though clearing on Sunday night
may allow for a modest ridge/valley temperature split as drier air
begins to arrive. Some valley fog is not out of the question
tonight, especially where any convection occurs. Following
additional anticipated convection on Sunday, more in the way of
valley fog should occur over the deeper southern and eastern
valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2024

The extended period will start off with a large trough of low
pressure aloft spinning in place over the northeastern CONUS. A
north to south elongated narrow ridge of high pressure will be in
place from south central Canada southward into the central and
southern Plains to start things off. Another trough of low pressure
is forecast to be moving across western Canada into central Canada,
with weak ridging coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest at the
same time. Another system is expected to settle over Florida, and
more or less remain in place there through next weekend. As the
period progresses, the Plains ridging is forecast to drift eastward
and slowly move through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee
Valley regions, bringing dry and warm weather to those areas. In
fact, most of the extended should be dry, with a few showers and
storms possible along the Virginia border and our far northern
counties Friday and Saturday, as troughs of low pressure move by to
our south and north. Our next decent chance of rail will likely not
arrive until next Sunday, when another area of low pressure moving
by to our south pushes just far enough northward to allow isolated
to scattered showers and storms to spread into our forecast area
from the south.

After starting off the period with near normal temperatures in the
upper 70s on Tuesday, a major warm up is in store for the remainder
of the period. With persistent high pressure in place over the
region, we will see a steady northward flux of warm and muggy air
off the Gulf of Mexico into the area, which will bring much warmer
than normal temperatures into the picture. Daily highs from
Wednesday through Sunday look to max out in the mid 80s to lower
90s, as winds shift mainly to the south and southwest, and we
experience ample sunshine under mostly clear skies along with strong
subsidence warming.

With the weather expected to be mostly calm in the extended, there
are currently no concerns from any shower or storm activity we
experience. With much warmer than normal temperatures expected, heat
index values could rise to the point of creating some minor
discomfort for anyone engaging in strenuous outdoor activities this
coming week, but nothing more.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2024

Extensive cloudiness will continue into the morning, with more
extensive and lower cigs working in with shower and possibly
thunderstorm activity toward morning, mainly not until after
sunrise. KLOZ and KSME stand the best chance of being impacted by
this activity, with lesser chances at the other TAF sites through
the day. As a result VFR conditions will prevail through at least
12Z, with the best chances for MVFR cigs/conditions occurring
between 14 and 20Z, when there is also the slight chance for a
thunderstorm. Light and variable winds are expected through the
morning before becoming west and then northwest at generally
10 kts or less this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF