418
FXUS63 KJKL 120712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
312 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler than normal to near normal temperatures,
  comfortable humidity, and pleasant weather will hold through
  tomorrow.

- Hot weather arrives late this weekend, with highs in low to mid
  90s and heat indices peaking out around 100 degrees in some
  locations on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2024

No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Just minor tweaks again to the Sky grids. Otherwise, the forecast
is on track with hourly observations blended into the forecast
grids.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Only minor tweaks made to the grids for the early evening update.
Remnants of today`s earlier CU field across our eastern zones
continues to erode and dissipate. Additional, mid/high level
clouds will take aim at the area through the overnight. Remains to
be seen what impact these cloud could have on overnight temps.
But current surface observations show the current forecast is
generally on target. No updates needed to the zones yet, but will
likely be updated sometime this evening to freshen up the
wording. Updated grids have been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 427 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Short term is fairly straight forward. Pattern aloft will become
less amplified as the core westerlies retreat northward to wards
the Northern Tier. At the surface, high pressure will be centered
over the Commonwealth one more night before shift off to the east
Wednesday. Return southerly flow around the western periphery of
the surface high will initiate a warm up beginning Wednesday.

Sensible weather features dry, fair weather for the short term.
With dry air in place (surface Tds generally around 50) and mostly
clear skies, temperatures will drop off quickly in our sheltered
valley locations tonight. Guidance has temperatures falling into
the mid 40s tonight in our cooler valley locations. Elsewhere
temperatures will fall into the mid 50s, especially along our
thermal belt. Boundary layer moisture will begin to increase
Wednesday with return flow, but Tds will only climb back into the
mid to upper 50s. At least that will make for relatively
comfortable weather Wednesday as afternoon high temperatures climb
back up into the 80s. However, moisture return will be enough
that fog will become a bit more prevalent Wednesday night in our
valley areas, especially where a readily available water source
(lakes, rivers, streams) is nearby. We should experience a great
ridge valley split Wednesday night as well, with the thermal belt
only dropping into the lower 60s for overnight lows, while the
cooler valleys drop into the low to mid 50s, especially across our
east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2024


Upper-level northwesterly flow will continue to exist across the
region. A shortwave perturbation will pivot eastward over the Niagara
Region and while that occurs, the associated surface low will shift
northeast through the Ohio Valley. The accompanying cold front will
begin to approach the region by Friday afternoon bringing isolated
chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Timing of the
front is ideal but due to rather dry column, widespread showers and
storms aren`t expected. Also, not looking at a significant risk of
severe weather.

Upper-level ridging is forecast to build in from the southwest and
surface high pressure will firmly establish itself over the region
for the remainder of the weekend into next week. As the high shifts
north and east, increasing temperatures are expected as highs will
climb into the low to mid-90s for Sunday and Monday; this coupled
with increasing moisture will allow for heat indices to approach 100
degrees. Models have come back into better agreement for Monday into
Tuesday with deterministic runs keeping surface high pressure across
the area. Increasing Gulf moisture will allow for disorganized
shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the period
with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-90s and heat indices
in the upper-90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 145AM EDT WED JUN 12 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected throughout the period outside
of the river valleys where fog will develop through early morning.
This fog will not impact any terminals. There will be an increase
in thin high level clouds into the morning. Light winds will be
the rule through the period, averaging less than 5 kts but having
a predominant north-northeast direction.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF