062
FXUS64 KLCH 212348
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
648 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Very little to no change in the day to day forecast and overall
weather pattern for the period. The surface high pressure will
remain off to the east of us with a disturbance moving into the
Central Plains. As a result of that, we will have elevated to
gusty southerly flow bringing in an abundance of moisture. Aloft
there is a stubborn high pressure centered over Mexico, with
ridging extending into the Gulf Coast States. This should keep us
"dry" in terms of rain however it will be hot and humid.

MaxTs will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s with MinTs in the
70s. Dewpoints will be in the 70s as well yielding heat indices in
the 94-102 range. Tis the season. Stay cool.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A repetitive early summer pattern will persist throughout much of
the long term period, with little day to day chances anticipated.
Aloft, a strong mid to upper level ridge will remain anchored from
north/central Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico throughout the
forecast period. This will result in a persistent warm and dry
pattern, with highs expected to warm into the lower to mid-90s each
afternoon through the beginning of next week. In addition, southerly
flow at the surface will keep an continuous fetch of Gulf moisture
across the region, allowing dewpoints to remain in the low to mid-
70s. This will in turn, hinder overnight lows from fall beyond the
low to mid-70s each night.

Around the end of the forecast period models continue to want to
swing a cold front through the region, although there remains a
decent bit of uncertainty. Regardless, if this were to occur cooler
temps are unlikely however, a reduction in dewpoints looks possible
which would at least bring down heat indices and overnight lows for
a brief period. This front may also be accompanied by a small chance
showers early Tuesday, which looks to be our next best chance of
precip for the foreseeable future.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours.
Eastern sites, ARA, LFT continue to see mostly clear conditions
through late evening before cloud cover builds from the west
lowering and bordering MVFR thresholds. Western sites BPT and LCH
will see these BKN decks under 3kft throughout the early morning
hours keeping conditions primarily MVFR. Eastern and inland
locations have more favorable chance at seeing periods of ground
layer BR after 11z, therefore minimal reduction of visibility
expected. Upper level cirrus decks above 10kft will continue
through morning and afternoon while low level clouds become
scattered under 5kft during the mid afternoon.

30


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Southeast flow is expected to prevail through the period. Winds
and seas are forecast to increase today due to the pressure
gradient increasing between surface high pressure to the east and
low pressure across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  88  71  91 /   0  10  10   0
LCH  76  86  74  87 /   0  10   0   0
LFT  74  89  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  76  87  75  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30