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000
FXUS64 KLCH 261119
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
619 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The pattern for today into the weekend will see a series of low
pressure systems move across the Southern Plains with a high over
the western Atlantic ridging in from the east. This will allow for
very warm and muggy conditions, along with quite breezy and gusty
winds.

For today, consensus of short term guidance keeps sustained wind
speeds for the most part at or below 20 mph. Therefore, a wind
advisory will not be issued. At the moment, no pops are in the
forecast, however will need to watch a short wave moving in from
the west this afternoon to see if it kicks off any convection over
Texas that may move toward the forecast area.

Gradient tightens further on Saturday into Sunday, and both
sustained winds and gusts are expected to be higher. Have gone
ahead and issued a Wind Advisory on Saturday from 9 am to 7 pm
local for locations mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor
where sustained wind speed will over 20 mph and near 25 mph with
gusts over 35 mph.

Late on Sunday, the upper level ridge breaks down enough that a
short wave will move into the region and push a weak frontal
boundary toward the forecast area. During very late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, very rich Gulf moisture will pool
across the northwest portion of the forecast area with PWAT values
between 1.6 and 1.8 inches, which is above the 90th percentile of
SPC climo, and 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity over 75
percent. Lift from this short wave will help develop showers and
storms across the northwest portion of the forecast area that will
slowly progress to the east.

With the high moisture content, and instability, with CAPES over
2000 j/kg, some stronger convection with high rainfall rates may
form. With progged slow storm motions, and flow becoming parallel
to the 85H-70H theta-e ridge, some localized heavy rainfall may
occur from very late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The longterm forecast period appears fairly busy with a series of
weak disturbances set to move across the region. The first takes
place Monday as a weak piece of trof energy extending from low
pressure in north central US looks to swing over the northern Gulf
states throughout the day. Fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms can be expected with its passage.

Remnant showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday,
Wednesday and again Thursday with increasingly weak disturbances
moving overhead. When not dealing with precipitation, high pressure
attempting to ridge in from the east over the work week will keep a
strong feed of moisture into the area resulting in several days of
hot, humid weather.

Temperatures slightly above normal are expected over the longterm
period. High`s in the low to mid 80s are expected Monday and Tuesday
with rainfall keeping temps slightly in check. Wednesday and beyond
look to top out slightly higher in the mid to upper 80s.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The main story during the forecast package will be very breezy
south to southeast winds, sustained between 15 and 20 knots with
gusts around 25 knots, that will only decrease slightly after
sunset. The southerly winds will bring in plenty of Gulf moisture
with MVFR ceilings through about 26/17z, then increasing to VFR
ceilings through the afternoon, before lowering to MVFR again
tonight.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Onshore winds are beginning to increase across the coastal waters
as gradient between a high pressure off the east coast of the US
and a low pressure system east of the Rockies in the Southern
Plains begins to tighten. This pattern will continue through the
weekend with a tight pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf
between a series of lows over the Southern Plains and a high off
the east coast and will allow for a prolonged period of strong
and gusty southerly winds.

Sustained winds are likely to be near or above 20 knots through
the weekend with gusts over 30 knots. This, along with building
seas to as high as 10 feet offshore, will bring about a long
duration small craft advisory through the weekend.

The prolonged fetch and duration of the strong onshore winds will
increase water levels along the coast. Currently tides are about
0.5 to 0.75 feet above predicted levels and are expected to
increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 feet by tomorrow. Therefore,
actual tide levels are progged to be above the 1.5 MHHW threshold
for a coastal flood advisory during high tide on Saturday morning
for lower southeast Texas and lower southwest Louisiana. These
conditions will likely continue for the high tide Sunday morning
and will probably extend further east also.

Winds are expected to decrease early next week as the high weakens
off the east coast and no deep surface lows are forecast to form
over the Southern Plains.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  69  87  67 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  82  72  84  72 /   0  10   0   0
LFT  85  72  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  82  72  84  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM CDT Saturday for
     LAZ073-074.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM CDT Saturday for
     TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-470-
     472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ455-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07