563
FXUS64 KLIX 011718
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms may develop and dissipate over
the region this morning, especially in eastern areas where there
is a lingering mid level convergence axis, behind a weak front
that is now situated near Mobile. PW values are slightly higher
in the east as well, keeping enhanced pops over this area through
the early afternoon before another mid level short wave moves in
from the west. This next shortwave will cause pops across the
entire region to increase and bring a decaying MCS across LA,
which will hopefully sweep over the waters before coming too far
into the local area. For both today and Sunday, the highest pops
will be during the afternoon when we have sufficient instability,
high lapse rates, and moderate to high PWs, causing a few
instances of gusty winds and some hail. There is some mid level
drying which could enhance downbursts we normally get from high
cape days. Any storms that linger could cause flash flooding
issues, especially in urban and low lying areas. The upper
disturbance will just cause pops to linger into the evening more
than usual. Given the combo of a summertime high CAPE pattern and
a weak upper level system, CAMs are having a harder than usual
time at picking up any sort of consistent timing.

Ridging builds in from the west Sunday night leading to drier
conditions until a few normal summer afternoon storms pop up Monday
afternoon.

Highs today and Sunday remain in the upper 80s but with the slight
ridging Monday, highs will climb a few degrees. Lows remain in
the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The previously mentioned weak ridging remains at least through
Wednesday night with mostly dry weather outside a few afternoon
thunderstorms. This will allow highs to climb back into the lower
90s for most areas with heat index values in the lower 100s.

A very large upper low over the Great Lakes will drop a front south
towards the area on Thursday with a weak mid level disturbance.
NBM keeps pops elevated on Thursday as the boundary approaches,
maybe from outflow boundaries? Otherwise, it looks like if the
front does make it, the associated rain/storms would be more
Friday, with NBM pops likely too low at this time.

Highs/lows remain the same as before although we may see slightly
lower lows and heat index values on Saturday, depending on what
the front does.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. MVFR conditions will
be possible for brief periods due to lower ceilings caused by
vicinity showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Conditions
will return to VFR by the late evening hours for all area
airports. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Southerly winds around 5-10 knots will remain through the forecast
period. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today through
Sunday with isolated storms each afternoon thereafter. Waves/seas
around storms will be higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  69  89 /  20  50   0  20
BTR  72  90  74  92 /  30  60   0  20
ASD  71  88  73  91 /  30  50   0  10
MSY  74  87  76  90 /  40  60   0  20
GPT  72  86  74  88 /  40  40  10  10
PQL  71  88  72  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM....LN
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...LN