335
FXUS64 KLIX 062326
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Upper shortwave and surface boundary both extend from about Mobile
Bay to Southwest Pass, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm
or two right along the boundary. Dense cirrus blowoff from the
convection covers about the southeast half of the area of
responsibility. This has definitely squashed surface heating under
the canopy, where temperatures have remained within a couple
degrees of the 80 mark, while western portions of the area have
warmed to near 90 degrees. Outflow and lake/sea breeze boundaries
could still produce a few isolated showers for the next 3-4 hours
until we lose surface heating. With cirrus canopy thinning,
southeast portions of the area are likely to see high temperatures
for the day occur very late in the afternoon.

We should lose the cirrus almost entirely this evening. Cannot
entirely rule out some mid level cloud cover Friday afternoon with
a very weak shortwave currently near the Arkansas-Missouri border,
but see mo indications that there will be any precipitation
associated with the shortwave.

While the column is drying out this evening, some concern that
forecast lows may be a bit too cool across the northern half of
the area as one has to go north of Interstate 20 to see any
significant areas of sub 70 dew points. Friday will see slightly
less humidity, but with northerly surface winds mid 90s won`t be
out of the question in most areas. I might question mid 90s
directly south of Lake Pontchartrain, as lake water is 83 degrees,
but even there, lower 90s probably appropriate. Lower dew point
air filtering into the area tomorrow night supports slightly
cooler low temperatures Saturday morning, but ECMWF numbers appear
to be slightly too cool for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Upper ridging expands eastward across the Gulf of Mexico briefly
over the weekend. This will keep any significant precipitation
away from the area and high temperatures in the lower and middle
90s. Some potential for a weak sea breeze to temper highs on the
Mississippi coast slightly, but that might be a late day
occurrence.

As East Coast upper trough reloads early next week, upper flow
becomes northwesterly once again (similar to much of this week).
This will push a weak boundary toward the area Monday or Tuesday,
and will also open the door once again for seemingly daily
mesoscale convective systems. Global models haven`t exactly been
trustworthy in this type of pattern, and expect that to be the
case again early next week. The NBM precipitation chances for
Monday (30 to 50 percent) have the support of the operational
ECMWF, while the GFS looks pretty dry. These trends continue
through mid week, and really can`t see departing from the NBM
deterministic PoPs or temperatures. Would note that if drier GFS
based solution verifies Wednesday and beyond, we`ll need to bump
up forecast highs. Not trusting a particular solution beyond
Wednesday as ECMWF and GFS operationals depict completely
different scenarios regarding the upper pattern over the Gulf.
Either solution would paint a wet pattern locally next weekend,
but details likely to change, and perhaps significantly, multiple
times between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024
A few lingering clouds are in the area from the line of storms
that passed through into the coastal waters earlier today, but
those should generally start to dissipate later tonight. VFR
conditions are expected. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Aside from some potential for convection in the next 12-18 hours,
shouldn`t be much weather concern for marine interests until at
least Monday, when thunderstorm chances start to ramp up again.
Winds should generally remain below 15 knots outside of
thunderstorms through the forecast period for most or all waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  73  96  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  95  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  77  94  77  93 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  72  93  72  91 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  71  95  69  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW