Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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098 FXUS64 KLIX 061726 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed across southeast Louisiana and portions of the MS Gulf Coast ahead of an H5 impulse moving across the region this morning. Behind the line, there could be an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but with most of the upper support transitioning out of the region, continued to advertise lower-end POPs respectively. Cloudiness this morning will keep temps down just a bit, but some breaks in the cloudiness this afternoon during peak heating will allow temps to warm into the upper 80s and even perhaps lower 90s, especially across the western tier. Overall, only superficial changes to the ongoing forecast with focus on the ongoing convection. (Frye) && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The front that has been talked about is arriving this morning. This is more of a trough at the sfc than a front, but there is some forcing just above the sfc with this and it should be capable of developing and gathering most of its sh/ts along its axis as the morning progresses. This boundary will press into the northern gulf late today before stalling. This should deliver some light northerly winds today bringing in some drier PW values. Model solutions are almost a 180 from yesterday. Yesterdays 00z run had higher PW to the south and west of this boundary with little to no precip in these higher PW areas. This morning, the higher PW values are to the SE of this boundary with lower PW values to the west and north and the only thing that has remained is the precip field which is little to none. Now that the PW field makes sense with the moisture depth, it is easier to allow for much lower precip numbers and so that is what this package will advertise. One more day of sh/ts around then some drying out starting Fri. A few storms could be strong today, but this may be more over the marine areas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A stronger dry air surge moves in for Sat keeping precip numbers to the some of the lowest numbers when related to the last several weeks. A new cold front will enter the picture by Monday and move rapidly toward the gulf coast stalling along the coast or somewhere near it. This will bring another bout of sh/ts with it either late Mon or Tue. At some point the easterlies will win out as we press deeper into the summer and our rain chances will come more from easterly waves, deep surges of tropical moisture, strong coastal sea breezes or the other things. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Convective line has passed to the east of all forecast terminals, and there will be no need to carry mention of thunder in any terminal. Still mid and high overcast for terminals near and east of Interstate 55, while to the west of there, scattered to broken cumulus has developed with heating. The high overcast will shift to the east of all terminals over the next 3-6 hours. The cumulus will dissipate with loss of surface heating toward sunset, leaving most or all terminals with no significant impacts overnight. Rain amounts haven`t been particularly impactful over the last 48 hours, so don`t expect any significant development of fog toward sunrise. Daylight hours on Friday should see no significant aviation impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Southwesterly winds of 10-15kt will become light northerly tonight into Fri. This will become a more variable wind Sat with a return flow Sun ahead of the next front that should stall along the coast or just offshore Mon possibly bringing northerly winds to the area once again. All of these winds will be light outside of any storms that are able to develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 69 91 65 / 20 0 10 0 BTR 92 73 96 71 / 20 10 10 0 ASD 91 72 95 70 / 80 10 10 0 MSY 90 77 94 76 / 80 10 10 0 GPT 88 73 94 71 / 80 10 10 0 PQL 89 71 95 68 / 90 20 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RW MARINE...TE