Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
262 FXUS65 KLKN 282030 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 130 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Showers and isolated thunderstorms taper off heading into the evening. Breezy northwest winds tomorrow may gust to 25-30 mph at times. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler tomorrow before warming back into the 80s by Friday. && .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday night. Some instability has lead to cumulus buildups across central Nevada progressing northeast into a more favorable environment for shower and thunderstorm development. Models continue to show an area of negative lifted indicies (LI) supporting vertical motion. This area is located across much of Elko county and extends into portions of Lander and Eureka. Isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to remain on track in the forecast for this afternoon, dissipating heading into the evening. Dew points in the 20s and 30s support most thunderstorms being dry in nature. 12 LKN sounding data showed DCAPE values of 900J/kg. Model soundings show inverted-V soundings with DCAPE values in the 900-1100J/kg range. Values this high combined with previously mentioned low dew points support gusty and erratic winds from collapsing updrafts. Highs this afternoon are generally in the 80s across the area. With the trough expected to progress east and veering winds to a northerly direction Wednesday, temperatures are forecasted to be 5-10 degrees cooler, especially across northern Nevada. Highs will remain in the low to mid 70s for most. Afternoon winds will be breezy out of the northwest gusting to 25-30 mph at times. Some isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecasted tomorrow with much of them remaining east of Wells in Elko county and Ely in White Pine. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. Look for a mainly west to east flow to develop at the beginning of the long term Thursday. Conditions will remain dry with highs in the 70s and 80s and light winds. The weather will be quiet during the overnight with lows in the 40s. Friday through the weekend looks mainly dry as the flow remains somewhat west to east, though models are showing weak trough energy developing Saturday and Sunday, moving across the area. No precipitation is anticipated though central Nevada could see an increase in clouds and build-ups during each afternoon as a low- level convergent axis sets up each afternoon along US Highway 50 as well as along the northern border with Idaho. Highs will be in the 80s with some low 90s possible in far central Nevada. Afternoon breezes to 25 mph will also develop. Look for quiet conditions each evening with lows in the 40s. Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue during the early portions of next week. Highs will remain in the 80s to perhaps low 90s, while lows during the night will dip into the 40s. Winds will be breezy each afternoon. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies during the early evening with clouds scattering out during the overnight. Isolated, convective cloud build-ups will also be possible with outflow winds to 35 knots. There continues chances for ISOLD TS at KEKO during the early evening and will keep the VCTS in the TAF. Otherwise, very low potential for TS at KELY at 5% through the early evening. && .HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter action stage later in the coming days. Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is forecast to slowly fall below action stage later today. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 91/86/86