Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 192135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE TOMORROW...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WHITE
PINE COUNTY. BY MONDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...WITH WINDY...COOLER...AND WETTER
CONDITIONS SET FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
STARTING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS EXPECTED. DIFFICULT TO GET ANY
GROUND TRUTH...BUT ONE RAWS SITE IN NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY RECEIVED
0.05 INCHES OF QPF. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

A MAINLY WEST TO EAST FLOW IS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-3C COOLER THAN SATURDAY. HAVE
KNOCKED FORECAST HIGHS BACK SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
GENERAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOK FOR QUIET CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND DOWN A PIECE OF ENERGY.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

CHANGES ARE AFOOT FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY...WITH CURRENT SPEEDS
FLIRTING NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. GFS WIND ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE A GOOD 3-4SD ABOVE NORMAL...WITH CURRENT MEX
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 40 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR KELY. OTHER LOCALES IN
THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN AN HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND...MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY WITH THE GFS ABOUT 3 DAM
DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EC. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS SO DECENT SHOT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS
POINT BUT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED UP AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. WEDNESDAY LINGERING INSTABILITY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST SO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN GRAUPEL SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWN WITH LI`S NEAR ZERO...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR
OUT UNTIL DETAILS GET RESOLVED BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL NV WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ABOUT A 25 PCT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THE KELY
TERMINAL BUT EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90





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