Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 280915
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOTORISTS MAY ENCOUNTER SOME PATCHES OF FOG THIS
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BECOME DRIER. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AS THINGS SETTLE DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING
AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ELKO COUNTY. THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT EAST
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING RIDGE PATTERN.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS...ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL INSTIGATE SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD
THUS CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR VERY EARLY THIS EVENING. WESTERN NEVADA WILL BEGIN TO WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF DRIER AIR.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY TO BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO UNDERGO DE-
AMPLIFICATION...SO DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS WELL AS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMING AND "DRYING"
CONDITIONS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BROAD SW FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. RH WILL
DROP AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT AGAIN..NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL
PRECIP. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST WEEKEND YET. MANY PLACES WILL BE IN
THE 80S...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS BELOW 5000FT AROUND 90.

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WOBBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE LONG TERM FOR BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL RUNS SHOW A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. DECIDED TO TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE THIS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP NEVADA DRY AND BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HRS. A FEW -SHRA/-TS STILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NV AT THIS HOUR.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WEAKEN. LATER TODAY
(THU) EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME BUILDUP OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS ON MTN RANGES. KELY WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT VCTS...BUT CHANCES
OF A TS IS LESS THAN 20% IMPACTING THE AIRPORT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94


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