Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KLKN 182104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES INLAND ON TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES OVER THE CWA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INITIALLY LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES AND WITH 300/700MB DIVERGENT/CONVERGENCE
COUPLET...HIGH BASED LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEVADA APPEARS TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED, WHICH
CAN BE NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN GREAT
BASIN.

WEDNESDAY...558-559 DM UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO,
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES SPREADING WELL
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEVADA. GFS FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -3 FOR
ALL ZONES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNATURES. 12Z ECMWF MUCH
THE SAME, SO NUDGED UP POPS A BIT MORE AND MENTIONED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDER. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...12Z ECMWF EJECTS UPPER LOW TO NEAR PHOENIX, WITH THE 12Z
GFS PLACING ITS LOW NEAR THE GRAND CANYON BY 5 PM. EITHER WAY,
DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS LOW`S TRACK, ALONG WITH AGAIN WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2) SPELLS ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA, RUBY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS SE, WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. AGAIN INCREASED POPS USING
12Z MRA GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS MILD AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

STARTING FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. 12Z ECMWF REPLACES WEAK
FLOW WITH A STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 5 PM FRIDAY, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS A 552 DM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF TONOPAH NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE WET FOR NEVADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH, BUT IS MUCH, MUCH SLOWER
WITH IT, NOT ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL TUESDAY APRIL 28TH.
GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW, SO LEANED LONG RANGE GRIDS TOWARD ECMWF, WHICH
IMPLIES A WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX NEXT SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SCT CIRRUS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM KEKO TO
KELY TO KTPH. N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AT
SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.