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000
FXUS65 KLKN 220010
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
510 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...SHORT TERM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PLUM OF
DUST SPREADING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
4:45PM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN BATTLE MOUNTAIN REPORTED VISIBILITIES
BEING REDUCED DOWN TO BETWEEN A HALF A MILE AND ONE MILE. THE
ALKALI DUST CLOUD ORIGINATED IN THE CARSON SINK AREA JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF FALLON. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CARRYING
THE PLUM INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA AND COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS WESTERN ELKO COUNTY AS OF 5:00PM. THIS PLUM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST THROUGH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
INTO EASTERN ELKO COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS MAY FIND
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. A NOWCAST HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS ONGOING EVENT...WITH UPDATES EXPECTED AS
THE PLUM DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...A DENSE PLUM OF ALKALI DUST IS APPROACHING THE ELKO
AIRPORT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WEATHER SPOTTERS WEST OF ELKO
HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO AROUND A HALF A MILE
WITH THIS DUST PLUM. HAVE UPDATED THE ELKO TAF TO REFLECT LATEST
INFORMATION AND EXPECTED TIMING OF THE DUST PLUM PASSAGE BY THE
ELKO AIRPORT. NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KWMC KELY
OR KTPH...ONLY KEKO.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 PM /

SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH. ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER WS AND OR.
THIS WILL MEANDER AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ROTATING AROUND AND THROUGH CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
RESULT MOSTLY IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. IF SHOWERS CAN FORM...THEY WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...700 MB
TEMPS DROP ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN CLOSE TO VALLEY
FLOORS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. ONLY EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...WHICH WILL ONLY OCCUR AT NIGHT. SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SANTA ROSAS...INDEPENDENCE...AND JARBIDGE COULD SEE A
LIGHT DUSTING ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. IF RECREATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COLD
TEMPS...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AGAIN...CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS NEVADA...WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. SOME AREAS MAY BE NEAR
RECORD COLD LOWS...ESPECIALLY KWMC AND KEKO. THE RECORD LOW IN
WINNEMUCCA IS 23 FOR THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FORECAST OF 26. ALL
SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED. THESE TEMPS
CAN KILL OR DAMAGE PLANTS IF NOT PROTECTED. FOR THIS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH DUE TO WIDESPREAD NATURE AND MANY LOCATIONS
PAST THE LAST FREEZE...HARD FREEZE DATE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
THURSDAY THERE IS A LITTLE INSTABILITY...BUT GFS LIS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. PWATS ARE NEAR 0.3 INCHES COMBINED
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOSTLY BE DRY...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE. JRM

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...CENTERING OVER OR NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND BC. DRY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20 MPH RANGE. THE ENERGY IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY TO
INCLUDE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW STRIKES TO NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SATURDAY...WITH AS MUCH AS A COUPLE DOZEN STRIKES SPREAD OUT OVER
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY
TOO...WITH AT MOST A FEW STRIKES...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERALLY VALLEY AREAS CAN EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS WITH NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...CREATING
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 4-5 MILES IN HEAVIEST DUST...WHICH SHOULD
BE AT KWMC AND KEKO.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT
STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THURSDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
NEVADA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

&&

$$

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