Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 101004
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 AM PST Sat Dec 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A persistent flow of Pacific moisture into the Great
Basin region will help create an active weather pattern through
the weekend. The mountains of Elko County are expected to
accumulate over two more feet of snow by tonight.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Warmer conditions abound this
morning. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to mid 40s across
northern Nevada to the 20s across east central Nevada. Light shower
activity is showing up on radar all across northern Nevada with an
emphasis on northern Elko County. There is a boat-load of moisture
banking up on the west side of the Sierras being efficiently
blocked at this time from making its way into the Great Basin.
Tahoe Valley had some moderate rain after midnight. Due to the
westerly flow aloft, surges of moisture will flow across the
Great Basin as the moisture core tracks south with a 120+ KT jet
core. Models seem to be in good agreement for the short term
period and the greatest impact will be over the high terrain of
Elko and White Pine Counties.
Today through tonight. We are in the midst of a very active
weather pattern with a periodically intense westerly moisture
flow. Temperatures at the surface will be above freezing through
most of Saturday evening, then begin to dip once again. Rain will
be the main precipitation type in the valleys today.
Precipitation in the form of snow could be substantial above 6500
feet through Saturday night and the top of the Independence and
Ruby Mountain ranges could receive a couple more feet of snow.
Thus, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for higher
elevations of Elko County. A Winter Weather Advisory for lesser
amounts of snow above 6500 feet in White Pine County is also in
effect. Low temperatures will be in the 30s tonight and dip into
the 20s Saturday night. High temperatures will rise into the 40s.
Sunday through Monday. The westerly flow will continue however on
the latest model runs, this looks like a relatively dry period.
The forecast will still mention precipitation chances since the
fast flow aloft could easily change timing with upcoming model
runs. High temperatures will be in the 30s. Lows will be in the
teens and 20s.
.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday
Models are still in agreement for an overall active pattern for
the next week. They both agree on zonal flow across the Great
Basin with some embedded trough in the flow and a deepening
trough off the west coast. Starting on Wednesday there is some
discrepancy between the long range models mostly on the timing
and depth of the trough as it moves onshore. This is better than
previous runs so models are coming into better agreement on the
evolution of the trough late in the week.
Monday night through Wednesday. Zonal flow with embedded trough is
expected across the Great Basin. This will pump moisture into the
silver state bringing snow and rain showers across the CWA. Warm
air should keep the snow levels fairly high with the main form of
precipitation in the valley being rain. There is some wavering on
just how warm the valleys will be so melting snow cant be ruled
out for some higher valleys as the main form of precipitation.
The mountains will see snow as the main form of precipitation.
The accumulations in the mountains may be significant of over a
foot of snow on average possible. Late wednesday the jet should
move eastward taking the moisture with it leavening remnant
showers for Thursday morning.
Thursday through Saturday. A trough deepening off the west coast
of the US should move onshore during Thursday to Friday. There is
some model discrepancy on how deep and fast the trough will
intrude inland which cast uncertainty on the timing and amount of
precipitation. Colder air should be brought into the silver state
by the trough which will allow for snowfall in the valleys. The
valleys at this time do not look to be recipient of a significant
amount of snowfall with accumulations of less than inch depicted.
The mountains are shown to receive a lot more snow with half of a
foot on average possible.
.AVIATION...Deteriorating conditions for all sites. A developing
winter system will drop ceilings and visibility into the IFR range
at KWMC and KEKO, and KELY to MVFR. KTPH will also see cigs drop
to mid levels with the chance for VCSH later in the TAF period.
Winds may gust into the 20s knots at KELY, but lower speeds at
KWMC...KEKO...and KTPH. Temperatures will drop to below freezing
again over night and so runways and other outside equipment may
gather a layer of semi-liquid precip that will freeze.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Elko
County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for White Pine