Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 312140
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
240 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH MODERATE RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR EXPANDS UP INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. MAY
SEE SOME STORMS PRODUCING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
CENTERED OVER THE AREA FROM WINNEMUCCA EAST TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTH ACROSS LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE AN INCH. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THAN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BEGINNING TUESDAY SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OF AREA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM ELKO COUNTY TO NEAR
EUREKA AND AUSTIN ON MONDAY BUT ISOLATED STORMS STILL POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OTHER AREAS AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE INSTABILITY AND PW`S
NEAR .75" BUT POCKETS OF LOWER PW`S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA WHERE LESS STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH PLACEMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC SO
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRIER WITH
PW`S AT .75" OR LESS SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM SOUTH WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VCTS AT KTPH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR KTPH COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS 457 AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF 455. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
EXPAND NORTH ON SATURDAY ACROSS ZONE 454...AND POSSIBLY UP INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 467 468 AND 469. STORM COVERAGE
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...HOWEVER STORMS WILL TRANSITION
TO WET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WETTING RAINS EXPECTED. STORMS OVER AND NEAR ZONE
454 SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/90/90/96



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