Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 012216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH SUNNY
SKIES MAY BE DAMPENED AT TIMES BY SMOKE POURING IN FROM CALIFORNIA
FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM ON TUESDAY. THEN...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING IN SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME VALLEYS ARE ALREADY
GETTING A LITTLE CHILLY AT NIGHT...SO ITS TIME TO START THINKING
ABOUT FINALIZING YOUR GARDENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY FORECAST WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IMPENDING HOWEVER SMOKY CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY WITH SOME EXTRA
WARMING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MAY IN TURN LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF SMOKE OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY WILL MAX OUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO CALIFORNIA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
AS TIME ELAPSES...EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE DGEX...THE GFS AND EC ALL SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LKN
CWA. THE NCEP RMOP IS WELL INTO CONFIDENT TERRITORY WITH THE TROF
MOVING INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...THRU F120 AND THEN THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL WANES. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF THE LOW OVER THE BATTLE BORN STATE IS
HIGHLY VARIABLE. BUMPED UP POPS THIS PACKAGE FOR DAY 5 AND DAY
6...TO ACCOUNT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE FORESEEN EITHER HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MIX OUT A LITTLE BETTER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF DRY
COLD FRONT...AND AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH 30 MPH IN SEVERAL SPOTS. THROUGH AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND ANY GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
WILL NOT SUSTAIN BUT BE SPORADIC AND MAINLY AT MID-SLOPES AND
ABOVE. NO FIRE WEATHER EVENT PLANNED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92




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