Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 251001
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND COVERING
ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE PICS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHWEST UTAH. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHING NORTHWARD
INTO FAR SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FOUR CORNERS WITH SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH FLOW BRINGING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EC BUILDS RIDGE OVER
GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD CUT OFF MOISTURE FLOW BUT GFS AND GEFS KEEP
MOISTURE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. SO UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER TUESDAY. CURRENT
MODELS ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ENHANCE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. WITH THIS WAVE PW`S EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR BETTER WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SO THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE OF
MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY AND A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS AT KELY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KELY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FIRE ZONES 455
AND 457 WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THE LEADING EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONE 455 AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONE 457 THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY. MOISTURE MOVES
FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ZONES 469 AND 470. STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE DRY BUT TRANSITION TO WET. BY SUNDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/90/90/91




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