Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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084
FXUS65 KLKN 132215
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...PACIFIC MOISTURE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE CONFIRMS MODELS`
DEPICTION OF FLATTENED RIDGE HAVING MOVED EAST INTO ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND QUASI-ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN WITH NEXT SYSTEM. DIRTY
FLOW INTO GREAT BASIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT POPS WILL GENERALLY
STAY TO THE EXTREME NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR
VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 7000
FEET MSL. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET IN NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY AND NORTHEAST HUMBOLDT COUNTY. A FEW UPSLOPE SPOTS IN
THE RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS COULD ACCUMULATE. STRONG RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WARMING TREND. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA VALLEYS FROM SKYROCKETING BUT STILL
LIKELY IN 50S TOWARD 60. FURTHER NORTH 40S AND 50S IN VALLEYS. SNOW
WILL MELT FASTER THAN WE`VE SEEN LATELY, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG
AT BAY MOST AREAS. SUCKER HOLES IN CLOUDS COULD ALLOW BRIEF FOG IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. WILL NOT PUT THIS IN GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MORE NORTHERN LOCALES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...COULD SEE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL START OUT WARM
BUT THEN DROP TO THE MID 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE DEPICTING A MAINLY WEST TO EAST
FLOW DURING THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
THAT MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH AT KEKO COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS DOWN TO OBSCURE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. CIGS AT KWMC STILL MID LEVEL AND VFR BUT LOWER THAN
RECENT BLUE SKIES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/86/98



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