Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 261028
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
328 AM PDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge continues to strengthen over the
Great Basin region which allowed temperatures to climb even
further into the 90s today across much of Nevada. Satellite
imagery shows no cloud cover while surface observations and
meteograms have shown an steady upward trend in temperatures over
the past 24 hours. Hot and dry conditions will persist through
Tuesday before increasing mid-level moisture presents an
opportunity for dry thunderstorms beginning Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...500 mb height rises in response to the building
high pressure dome across the southwest will act to increase high
temperatures even more over the next couple of days. Models are
consistent in bringing upper 90s and low 100s to the valley
locations across northern Nye county Monday and somewhat less on
Tuesday. As a result...a heat advisory was issued for northern Nye
county for Monday afternoon. Temperatures will peak Monday or
Tuesday before moderating somewhat for the latter part of the
week.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday. Model runs
continue to show a large upper ridge rotating aloft around the
four corners region through the forecast period, with some re-
positioning from time to time. On Tuesday, hot temperatures will
be prevalent across northern and central Nevada. Current heat
advisory issued for Monday afternoon for northern Nye county may
need to be extended into Tuesday as highs there will still be in
the upper 90s to low 100s. There is a slow moisture push northward
that is expected to bring more cloud cover in central Nevada but
may not help dampen highs enough. Winds will remain on the light
side. There could be enough moisture in the mid-levels for one or
two dry isolated thunderstorms in far eastern White Pine county in
the afternoon. By Tuesday night, mainly quiet weather will
continue, with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday, models depict the subtropical high
spinning over portions of Utah/Arizona with a return flow out of
the south. Storms will start out dry in portions of White Pine and
northeast Nye county, but are expected to moisten as increasing
moisture drives north. In addition, areas north like Eureka and
Elko counties will see the possibility of dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday and possibly Thursday, although model soundings do show
precipitable water values of around 0.70 to 0.80 inches at KEKO,
with the potential for more dry storms than wet. Will need to
continue to monitor these for possible fire weather concerns on
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the 90s to around
100 degrees with lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are anticipated for the next 24-hours
across northern and central Nevada.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions will continue today and
peak Monday and Tuesday. Dry south to southwesterly winds of 10-15
mph over the central Nevada highlands will advance the curing of
fuels over the next few days.

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase mid-level moisture over
the state beginning midweek which could bring dry thunderstorms to
higher elevations across fire zones 457...455 and 454. GFS
soundings across the eastern half of the CWA show a classic dry
thunderstorm sounding with more than sufficient dry sublayer to
support dry downbursts. Instability increases Thursday as moist
mid-layer deepens which could yield a transition from dry to wet
thunderstorms by late Thursday.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93



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