Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 232110
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
EXTREME WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS YET AS WINDS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT AT THIS TIME...LOOKS
LIKE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE WEST. EXPECT THIS TO BE
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH TWO DISTINCT SURGES OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH F120 AND
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH F144. BUMPED UP THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY...WITH QPF EMPHASIS ON THE SHELDON NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. THESE AREAS CAN
EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DIP BELOW 6000 FEET
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DEPICT WEAK RIDGING
REBOUNDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 2 DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER AND THEN THE NEXT QPF EPISODE WOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED...IT WOULD BE VERY
FEASIBLE TO GET QPF WELL SOUTH OF I-80...BUT FOR NOW...THE MODELS
ARE PINGING INTO A NORTHERN CWA EVENT LATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH A PACIFIC STORM
MOVING INLAND...EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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