Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 231027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
327 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture surges north and west into the area
today and continues into the early part of next week. This will be
coupled with a trough moving onshore from the Pacific. This
combination will lead to an increase chance of thunderstorms
through the next several days. Drier air works its way back into
the region from the northwest by mid- week curtailing
thunderstorm chances.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Monsoonal moisture continues
to stream into the area and will push further north and west
today. At the same the Pacific trough will begin moving in from
the west and the combination of moisture and instability will lead
to a greater coverage of thunderstorms. Expecting mostly wet
thunderstorms with some dry thunderstorms on the leading edge of
the moisture push north of I80 before transitioning to wet this
evening. On Monday, showers and thunderstorm coverage and
intensity increases as the upper- level low encroaches on the
region. Ensemble mean PW values expected to be in the 90th
percentile or higher over an inch and CAPE values of 800-1500 J/kg
will provide ample fuel for widespread showers and storms. With
the upper-level jet spreading over the state, some of this
activity could be better organized and strong.

Another issue will be possible flash flooding due to moderate to
heavy rain and overall slow storm motions, particularly over
recent burn scars. Expect warms temps to continue with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday, dropping a few degrees on
Monday with the increased moisture and cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Active monsoon regime
continues Through Wednesday. With precipitable water values near 1
inch localized flooding is possible under the more intense storm
cells. In addition upper low over northern CA Tuesday and
Wednesday will also provide dynamical enhancement across northern
NV with some strong to severe storms possible. Drier air moving
in from the west will limit thunderstorm activity to eastern NV
Thursday through Saturday, but with precipitable water values
remaining near 1 inch across eastern NV heavy rains will be
possible with any storms.


.AVIATION...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across
east central NV today with possible impacts to the KELY terminal.
Thunderstorm coverage will spread north and west aft 00z with
possible impacts to the KEKO/KWMC terminals.


.FIRE WEATHER...Storm activity expands north and west today.
North of I80 expect a chance of isolated dry storms before before
transitioning over to scattered wet. Western and Central Humboldt
are expected to stay mainly dry storms and a Red Flag has been
issued for this afternoon and evening. South of I80 expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to possibly
heavy rains possible as PWAT values jump to around an inch,
surface dew points increase to around 50 degrees and overall storm
motion will be slow to the north. Overnight RH recoveries will
begin to have decent improvements over Central NV tonight.
Recoveries continue to improve tomorrow night and Monday night
across most of central and northern NV as mid and surface moisture
increases. Expect additional scattered wet showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday before drier air works in from
the west mid to late week, diminishing overage thunderstorm
coverage. There is the potential that similar conditions will
exist in fire zone 467 for additional dry thunderstorms on Monday
but confidence is low at this time.


Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Central and Western Humboldt County.



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