Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 282146
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND MAINLY DRY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY THE HEAT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND OWYHEE TO NEAR
ROUND MOUNTAIN...AND THEN EAST TO THE UTAH LINE. MOST STORMS WON`T
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT WILL KICK UP A BIT OF
DUST OVER NORTHERN NEVADA IN SPOTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PLACED GUSTING TO OVER
40 MPH. THINGS COOL OFF AND QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY AND THEREAFTER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH...KILLS HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY BRINGS SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN...BUT FLOW RETURNS TO THE TYPICAL
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE AXIS MOVES EAST. FRIDAY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF
BATTLE MOUNTAIN. LITTLE RAINFALL, BUT GUSTY WINDS BOTH FROM PRE-
FRONTAL GRADIENT AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. A LITTLE BLOWING DUST
IN SPOTS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT IN TERMS OF GIANT
PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT. THERE IS
A TIGHT H10-H5 THICKNESS GRADIENT BEHIND THE FROPA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS DROP BY ABOUT 5-12 DEGREES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIP/STORMS DROPS ON SATURDAY WITH FROPA
AND THEN EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

DO NOT FEEL A RISK FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME,
BUT LAKES OR DRIVING COULD BE TRICKY WITH THE OPEN NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY. BROADSIDE WINDS TO A TRAILER OR BOAT WILL LIKELY BE
ADDRESSED IN A SPS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ELONGATES THE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN NV. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS NEAR THE
OREGON/IDAHO BORDER AS MODELS DEPICT SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN THAT AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE
KELY/KEKO TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PROBLEM O` THE DAY IS THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD
NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PICK UP TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 20 MPH OR A BIT HIGHER EVEN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN ON SATURDAY TO SWITCH MORE TO
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 30-35 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND AS HIGH AS 35-45
ON RIDGELINES. GUSTS COULD BE UP TO 40 IN THE VALLEYS AND HIGHER
AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO BELOW
CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS GENERALLY. RECOVERY WILL
BE IN THE 50-60% RANGE AND HIGHER SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK
UP AGAIN SATURDAY BUT COVER LESS AREA. THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A KINGSTON TO
OWYHEE LINE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS MAY EXTEND A BIT WEST TO COVER ZONE 467 AS FRONT
APPROACHES.

SATURDAY...COVERAGE GENERALLY COVER MUCH OF THE FIRE DISTRICTS
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS
WILL BY A HYBRID TYPE...SOME WET...SOME DRY.

SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER AND RH`S UP A BIT...GUSTY WINDS EASE UP ON US
SOME AS WELL.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/91/91/98


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