397
FXUS63 KLSX 220359
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1059 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thus far the anticipated severe weather has not materialized as
anticipated and advertised much of the day by the majority of the
CAMS with the lack of a line of severe storms/supercells. Overall
it appears at the least the intensity and coverage of severe will
be less than previously thought. The latest ACARS soundings from
St. Louis are showing a warm layer aloft and we are speculating
that the elevated showers and storms now between St. Louis and
Columbia could erode that warm layer and result in an improving
environment for severe storms, especially the severe cluster north
of Lake of the Ozarks that is moving east-northeast. The CAPE and
shear distribution ahead of the advancing cold front will
continue to support severe potential ahead of the front. We have
been updating our messaging to imply severe storms will be more
scattered in coverage. We have also toned down our wording from
the higher-end threats, and believe our threats with any severe
storms are damaging winds of 60-70 mph, hail to the size of
golfballs, and isolated tornadoes. The severe threat should wind
down greatly by midnight.

Glass

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight, mainly
  during the evening. The primary severe threats are damaging
  winds of 60-70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls, and isolated
  tornadoes.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances will be focused south of I-70
  on Wednesday as a cold front settles into southward. A few
  severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across southeast
  Missouri and southwest Illinois in the afternoon and evening.

- Unsettled weather will dominate the from Thursday through the
  Memorial Day weekend with frequent chances for showers and
  thunderstorms, and normal to above normal temperatures.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

It is the waiting game at this hour early this afternoon.
instability continues to grow with heating, and most of the CWA
is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/KG but capped as well
with a decent warm layer above 850 mb. An axis of very unstable
air and MLCAPE of 3000+ J/KG focused ahead of the cold front
across eastern KS into far NW will be the genesis zone and the
latest GOES imagery is already showing deepening convective
cu/towers and storm initiation. Thunderstorms should erupt from NW
MO into far eastern KS within the next few hours and favorable
deep layer shear of 55+ kts and the aforementioned CAPE suggests
they will quickly become severe with supercells favored. The
supercell storms will move quickly east-northeast and should grow
in coverage into a broken line, tracking into central and
northeast MO in the 6-8 pm time frame. This line will then track
quickly to the east- southeast through the evening with MLCAPE
values of 2000+ and robust deep layer shear maintaining the severe
threat across the ENTIRE AREA until it exits the CWA in southeast
MO and far southwest IL near 06-07z. Deep layer shear vectors
have a fairly large orthogonal component to the advancing cold
front/forcing suggesting that the line should at least be composed
of semi- discrete supercells into late evening with merger
potential suggesting localized upscale growth in severe bowing
line segments/clusters. All severe weather hazards will be
possible throughout the CWA, but the greatest potential for high-
end severe weather including very large hail greater than 2 inches
in diameter, wind gusts possibly of 80+ mph, and tornadoes
including a strong tornado will reside this evening across central
and northeast MO and west-central IL. In this area the
instability will be greatest during the duration of the event and
there is a short window of slightly better low-level hodograph
curvature. The low-level winds veer through the evening
diminishing hodograph curvature and resulting in more of a
straight-line profile in the low-levels which is less favorable in
general for supercell tornadoes, unless good deviant motion
occurs. 0-3km shear vectors would also support tornado potential
with linear structures and QLCS processes as well.

The cold front will settle into southern MO and southern IL on
Wednesday. A well-defined progressive short wave trof will move
through the mid-upper MS Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening
and this will aid in showers and thunderstorms generally focused
south of I-70 and especially across southeast MO and southern IL
in proximity to the frontal zone. While there appears to be some
severe potential in the afternoon and evening, the greatest
instability is forecast at this time to reside south of the CWA
and this would suggest that is where the greatest severe threat
will be favored as well. Wednesday will also be 10-15 degrees
cooler with the area largely in the post-frontal air mass.

Glass

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist into early next week with
progressive west-southwest flow aloft forecast. While there
continue to be some differences in the guidance suite with
details, this flow regime will be feature periodic shortwaves
tracking within the flow and traversing the area and frontal
boundaries attendant with them wavering north to south and across
the area. This will result in frequent shower and thunderstorm
chances, however dry time will be frequent as well. Currently
Friday and Sunday have the greatest precipitation potential but
not all day rains. High temperatures are a bit uncertain and
could vary depending on clouds and timing of the rain. Our current
forecast is a bit cooler than the previous one and generally lies
in the lower quartile of the NBM range, and suggests warmer highs
more into the 80s is certainly quite possible.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Lingering thunderstorms may continue to impact St. Louis area
terminals near the beginning of the 06Z TAF cycle, but this will
be a short window, and VFR conditions are expected the remainder
of the night and into tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and gusty,
erratic winds will be the primary hazards with these
thunderstorms should they directly impact any individual terminal.
Scattered showers are expected to redevelop along and south of
the front tomorrow afternoon, but may only impact I-70 corridor
terminals for a brief period before moving south. VFR conditions
are expected at UIN throughout the TAF cycle.

BRC

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX