Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 091718

1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Quick update this morning to lower temperatures today as extensive
cloud cover and cold air advection will keep diurnal rise at a
minimum this afternoon. Have my doubts as to how fast these lower
clouds will clear this afternoon into the evening. Will need to
watch trends but cloud cover could hold well into the evening if
not the overnight hours.



.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

The cold front will move south of the area early today as an upper
trough currently stretching from the upper Midwest to the Central
Plains will move through Missouri and Illinois by 00Z.  Ascent from
the trough and low level moisture convergence will be enough to
cause scattered showers over the southern half of the CWA through
this morning.  Will go with mostly cloudy skies through early
afternoon before the clearing starts from northwest to southeast.
The clouds today will be from a combination of extensive mid-high
clouds currently streaming over the area as well as a large area of
low clouds moving south out of Iowa this morning.  There will not be
much change in temperature today with the clouds and advection
behind the front.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

(Tonight through Monday)

Dry weather is expected into early next week as upper ridge moves
across the area and atmosphere will remain in dry through a deep
layer.  Temperatures will warm up on Saturday and Sunday as 850mb
temperatures climb into the 10-15C range.  A trough will move across
the upper Midwest on Monday which will bring another cold front
across Missouri and Illinois on Monday.  Will keep Monday dry for
now as there will be limited moisture available for this passage.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected for the middle to late part of next week as
northwesterly flow sets up behind the upper trough.  Temperatures
will initially cool down on Tuesday behind the early week front but
then slowly warm as 850mb temperatures climb back up into the 10-15C



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

The MVFR stratus formed overhead this morning and is almost
connected back to the area of stratus that was positioned to our
north over Iowa. This area of cloud cover will slowly sink
southeast, trying to dissipate with time this afternoon. Have
slowed the clearing by a few hours, which should keep fog from
being too much of a problem. North wind this afternoon will become
light and variable as high pressure builds into the region.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR stratus around 2500 feet will eventually clear tonight from
the northwest. Ceiling could improve to VFR at times this
afternoon. Will advise next shift that if clearing is quicker than
currently forecast that some MVFR visibility with fog could
develop late tonight and Saturday morning. North wind around 10KT
will become light and variable overnight.





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