Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 202316

616 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Frontal boundary has exited the forecast area with surface ridge
building in. So expect clear skies and light winds tonight.
Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 40s with upper 40s to
low 50s in the St. Louis metro area.


.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as GFS/NAM/ECMWF
are in good agreement that upper ridge will move into Missouri and
Illinois from the west.  Have added a chance of showers over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois on
Thursday as another shortwave will be moving quickly eastward into
the area.

Continued to use a blend of MOS guidance the next few days which
fits in well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement today that upper ridge will
begin building into area on Friday and that it will remain over
the area through next weekend bringing continued dry weather.
Winds will turn out of the south and 850mb temperatures will climb
above 10C which support temperature above normal temperature for
Saturday and Sunday. Both models are showing an upper trough
moving into the Plains with and attendant cold front entering
Missouri and Illinois by next Monday, so will keep the current chance
of showers going.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.





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