758
FXUS64 KLUB 241900
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
200 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The forecast remains under nearly-zonal mid to upper flow this
afternoon, although backing of that flow to southwest will occur
later tonight ahead of a short wave trough that will eject across
the Colorado Rockies to the central High Plains during the day
Saturday. At the surface this afternoon a cooler post-frontal air
mass is in place, albeit briefly. As surface high pressure moves
eastward off the High Plains late this afternoon and this evening,
flow across the forecast area will veer to east and eventually
southeast. Some model progs suggest low level moisture return
will be robust enough to bring some stratus into the forecast area
toward sunrise. That solution looks marginal at this point but is
something worth watching through the night. At that point the
ejecting short wave trough and deep southwesterly flow will
manifest as an eastward surging dryline on Saturday, likely
getting to the eastern column of counties in the forecast area by
mid-afternoon. Enhanced mid level flow south of the mid/upper
trough will mix to the surface behind the dryline with windy 20-30
mph conditions on top of high temperatures a good ten degrees or
more than this afternoon. Lastly, will keep a precip-free forecast
going for late day Saturday. There is an outside chance that a
storm or two could develop along or just to the east of the
dryline, although the models that do convect are doing so a bit
farther to the east in the air mass that is less well- mixed than
is expected in the vicinity of the dryline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A weak low will move southeastward from the Rockies on Sunday.
Although winds will not be as strong as Saturday, some near-critical
fire weather concerns may remain near the NM state line. A cold
front moves through the area on Monday, switching winds to
northerly. However, high temperatures remain the 90s across much of
the area. The pattern looks to become much more active for the rest
of the week. Low-level southeasterly flow will bring in a fair
amount of Gulf moisture to the region. Although an upper ridge will
be the dominant large-scale feature over our area throughout the
week, a number of shortwaves will propagate through the ridge during
the afternoon/evening hours likely eroding any morning cap that
develops. As such, several days of severe weather may occur area-
wide starting Tuesday afternoon. It remains too early to determine
specific details, but definitely stay tuned to upcoming forecasts.
Temperatures will remain on the warmer side with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
There is a small chance that low level moisture return will be
robust enough as flow veers to the east and southeast tonight to
bring some stratus into the forecast area, but confidence in this
outcome is too small to insert a mention at this time. Gusty north
post-frontal winds this morning are already beginning to decrease
as pressure gradient weakens. Further decreases in speed and a
gradual veering of direction will occur this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A dryline will move eastward across the South Plains area on
Saturday with hot temperatures, very dry air, and west winds of 20-
30 mph behind it. This will lead to critical fire weather conditions
along and west of the I-27 corridor. There remains some uncertainty
in relation to wind speeds, RFTI values, and state of the fuels for
the eastern South Plains, roughly east of the interstate to the
Caprock escarpment. Will upgrade the existing Watch to a Red Flag
Warning where confidence is highest and leave the remainder of the
watch as is, letting the next forecast shift make a final
determination regarding the elements mentioned above.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon Saturday to midnight CDT Saturday
night for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039-040.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for TXZ024-030-036-041-042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07