813
FXUS61 KLWX 061912
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
312 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through this evening as a cold front
moves across the area. Dry conditions Friday into Saturday as high
pressure builds over the region. A slow moving upper trough
approaches the area from the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to more unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM this evening
for locations along/east of the I-95 corridor.

Main hazards: Locally damaging wind gusts. Large hail cannot be
ruled out, but the overall environment supports damaging wind as
the main threat. An isolated tornado is also possible before the
multi-cluster or transient supercellular segments become more
linear.

Faster storm motion should prevent any significant flooding
issues from occurring, though there will be quick downpours in
the stronger storms.

Latest ACARS out of IAD has ~1400 J/kg of SBCAPE and low level
lapse rates around ~7 C/km. These should only increase through
the afternoon as surface heating persists, which will allow for
evaporative cooling and gusty winds to make it to the surface. 
Currently the one limiting factor is low to mid level westerly
flow, which is causing updrafts to struggle as of 19Z.

Temps this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s, with dew
points still in the lower 70s. The atmosphere remains very moist
as PWATs hover around 1.5-2.0" through the afternoon.

The front and line of storms push east of I-95 by sunset, then
any lingering showers behind the front dissipate by late
evening. Dry conditions overnight as lows settle in the mid to
upper 50s along/west of I-81 and low to mid 60s to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions expected Friday and Saturday as large surface high
pressure moves across the region. A large upper trough remains
enough to our north through Saturday afternoon, but starts to dip
south closer to our area Saturday night. This could bring a few
showers to the Alleghenies for the second half of the weekend.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day, with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Our area will remain in a nearly zonal flow aloft between upper-
level low pressure over New England/southern Canada and the
subtropical ridge over the southern CONUS. A westerly downsloping
flow behind a cold front will allow for dry and breezy conditions
along with low humidity for Saturday.

An upper-level disturbance and re-enforcing cold front will move
through Sunday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Coverage will most likely be isolated to scattered and instability
will be limited, but given a stronger wind flow aloft there could be
some stronger storms with gusty winds.

The upper-level trough will dig south for the early portion of next
week, bringing cool and unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will slowly move across the area this afternoon,
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to most
terminals. A second round of thunderstorms is possible this
evening, but guidance is split on if this occurs which is likely
due to outflow boundary interactions. Any strong thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening could produce wind gusts in excess
of 35 knots.

Dry conditions this evening behind the cold front as southerly winds
shift to the west. After that, VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.

VFR conditions are expected most of the time Saturday
through Sunday. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening for all
waters.

A slow moving cold front will cross the waters later this
afternoon into the evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front, with a second round possible later
this evening. Special Marine Warnings are likely needed for
strong storms capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 35
knots.

High pressure builds into the region from the west Friday into
Saturday. West winds are likely to remain below SCA criteria.

Westerly winds on Sunday turn northwest behind a cold front. Winds
over the waters are expected to stay below SCA criteria. Showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday could bring stronger gusts to the waters in
the afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a steady southerly flow in place across the region, tidal
anomalies have been on the increase. A cold front crosses the
area this evening, with the resulting west winds causing tidal
anomalies to drop by tonight, though the more senstive tidal
locations will make a run at minor tidal flooding for the
morning tidal cycle.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB/KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/CPB
MARINE...BJL/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX